The final day of the regular season was a whirlwind for the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams needed a win to ensure their spot in the playoffs, and both found a way to get it done.
While this game might favor the Bills on paper, it could be a tough matchup for them, especially if the Steelers’ defense performs as well as they have lately. Let’s look at the latest odds, go over our best bets, and find the best possible player props for this matchup!
Live Odds
As I write this on Thursday afternoon, the Bills are ten-point favorites over the Steelers. This is a massive spread, especially in the playoffs. We were expecting this line to be closer to a touchdown, so the fact that it’s this high is somewhat concerning.
The current over/under is set at 36, which seems low considering the Bills’ offensive output this season. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out in this game and if the Bills will be as dominant as Vegas imagines. We don’t necessarily recommend a side for this one, but we are leaning towards the over, especially since it is under 40.
Best Bet: Steelers Team Total UNDER 12.5 (-118, FanDuel)
The Steelers offense isn’t exactly one to write home about. While they scored 13+ points in five straight weeks, their opponents haven’t had the best defenses.
Mason Rudolph might have a tough time getting going in this one, resulting in a potentially blowout victory for the Bills. They might be 10-point favorites, but there’s a world that they could win by over 20 in this one if things go their way.
With that in mind, we’re taking the under on the Steelers’ team total of 12.5, even though we recommended taking the over in the above comments.
Best Bet: First Team To 20 Points (Bills, -160 PointsBet)
This is a fantastic piece to throw in a parlay. We don’t anticipate the Steelers scoring more than 13, so why would it be possible to be the first team to 20 points?
-160 might be too much juice for you, but this is a bet we absolutely love in this spot. The Bills might get to 20 points by the end of the third quarter, hopefully beating the Steelers to that spot and cashing with ease.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (-105) (BetMGM)
We love Josh Allen’s chances of recording a rushing touchdown in this game. Allen has proven time and time again that he will do whatever it takes to help the Bills win games, which includes rushing like a madman whenever he gets the chance.
In a must-win situation against the Steelers, we like Allen’s odds of falling into the endzone.
Stefon Diggs OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards
This number is far too low for a player of Stefon Diggs’ ilk. Yes, he has seen a decreased role lately, but in a playoff game, we expect Allen to call his name early and often.
Diggs might not necessarily have a long future with the Bills after this year, but he’ll want to put together a massive performance in this one, showcasing that he is still an elite receiver.
Pat Freiermuth OVER 2.5 Receptions (-105) (DraftKings)
While we don’t love too many of the Steelers’ lines, we do like this spot for Pat Freiermuth. The Bills’ elite cornerbacks will likely have the Steelers’ deep threats covered, giving limited options to Mason Rudolph.
If this is the case, Freiermuth could find himself open in the flat, giving Rudolph a safety net on nearly every play, something he could take advantage of. Look for this connection to continue this week, resulting in Freiermuth hitting the over on his receptions.
