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Odds to Win 2023-24 Super Bowl: Niners Slight Favorites Over Chiefs

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
January 30, 2024
Odds to Win 2023-24 Super Bowl: Niners Still on Top

One word comes to mind when reflecting on the 2022 NFL season: Legacy. Assigning a value or associating a feeling to a player’s career is a favorite pastime of fans.

The word goat has probably been used more in the last decade than in all human history before it but in a different context. In the NFL’s dictionary, the word goat has a photo of Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. next to it.

The seven-time Super Bowl Champion announced his retirement on February 1 for the second consecutive year. This time he has reportedly filed the paperwork with the league to support that announcement, according to USA Today, CBS Sports, and other outlets.

On February 12, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs won their second Super Bowl in four years. Mahomes has made at least the conference title game each year as the starter for Kansas City since 2018 and is building a resume that has him on a historical trajectory.

The 27-year-old has those two SB rings, two SB MVPs, two regular season MVP awards, two first-team All-Pro nods, a second-team All-Pro recognition, and five Pro Bowl selections. If legacy is the topic of conversation, Mahomes’ name is becoming hard to leave out.

The question for 2023 is, who else will further their legacy? The odds for Super Bowl LVIII were released almost immediately after the final whistle sounded in Arizona. We’ll cover the favorites and long shots while providing some early best bets for the upcoming NFL season with plenty of time to lock in value at the window.

First, let's take a look at the odds from over at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Current Odds to Win 2023-24 Super Bowl

Latest Odds from FanDuel SportsBook

San Francisco 49ers -124
Kansas City Chiefs +106

Recapping the 2022 Season

The Chiefs defeated the favored Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 to clinch their third Super Bowl title in franchise history. According to Pro Football Reference, Kansas City was the third favorite entering the 2022 season behind the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Eagles surprised most of the league by finishing 14-3 and clinching the top seed in the NFC after being nearly +2500 to win the title when the season began. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts finished second in league MVP voting behind Mahomes. Hurts set a Super Bowl record for rushing yards by a quarterback in the Eagles’ loss and matched Hall of Famer Terrell Davis’ mark of three rushing touchdowns in the big game.

The AFC-runner up Cincinnati Bengals also started 2022 with odds of +2000 or longer before winning 12 games, topping the AFC North, and making their second straight conference championship game appearance. Their young core on offense of Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase could make them factors in the Super Bowl conversation for years to come.

SB LVIII Betting Favorites

The defending champions lead the way, but Kansas City only carries a slight advantage over a group of teams that includes the Bills, 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals. San Francisco had one of the best rosters in the league in 2022 and nearly made it to the Super Bowl with their third quarterback before Philadelphia pounced on them in the NFC title game.

They are the only team among the favorites that doesn’t have their long-term quarterback situation figured out heading into the offseason. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is renowned for his ability to win games with defense and a great running game, but it remains to be seen whether that combination can win deep into the postseason against teams with top quarterbacks.

The Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Chargers are between the top-tier favorites and the rest of the league. However, the quarterback situation in Baltimore could significantly alter the Ravens’ odds if Lamar Jackson doesn’t re-sign this offseason.

Jackson’s electrifying playing style has caught up with him in the form of 10 missed games over the last two seasons, and Baltimore’s front office will be deciding whether a fully guaranteed contract is in their best interests.

Dak Prescott will return after his tumultuous season for a Cowboys team that hired Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator to replace Kellen Moore. Dallas was able to retain defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who was a candidate for multiple head-coaching vacancies across the league.

In LA, Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ season ended in gut-wrenching fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars after blowing a 27-0 lead in the AFC Wild Card round. The Oregon product has won six, nine, and ten games in his first three seasons as a pro, and his improvement has vaulted the Chargers into the top eight teams in the league, according to oddsmakers.

2023 Long Shots

At the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals, Texans, and Colts have the longest odds of winning the next Super Bowl. Coaching changes within all three organizations on the heels of disappointing 2022 seasons have caused this free-fall in the eyes of the sportsbooks.

Just a season ago, the Cardinals and Colts were +3500 or better to win the championship in the preseason odds. A lot has changed.

There are a few long shots that may provide some value for bettors. The Minnesota Vikings are +4000 or longer at several outlets, the Pittsburgh Steelers can be bet at +5000 or greater, and the Seattle Seahawks have some of the longest odds in the league after a resurgent 2022 season.

The Vikings lost to the New York Giants in the Wild Card round of the NFC playoffs, and the Seahawks fell to the 49ers the same weekend. Pittsburgh won seven of their last nine games to finish just outside the playoff positions in 2022, and the team has reason to believe in Kenny Pickett as a long-term starting quarterback.

For the Seahawks, Geno Smith put together his best season as a professional and won AP Comeback Player of the Year while throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. His 69.8% completion rate led the NFL, and Seattle made the playoffs a year after trading Russell Wilson.

Super Bowl Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +1000 (DraftKings)

Cincy proved they could go to Buffalo and win in the playoffs and is 3-1 against Kansas City in the least two years. Joe Burrow has established himself as one of the premier quarterbacks in the league, and his surrounding cast is as good as any in the NFL.

They still have Burrow, Chase, and Tee Higgins on rookie contracts for 2023, meaning this season could be the last chance they’ll have to win the championship with this group of skill players.

We like the value and will jump at the chance to put Cincy in our pockets at 10 to 1 odds.

Odds Update After Conference Championship Weekend

Well ladies and gentlemen, it all comes down to this! The San Francisco 49ers will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. Even after two subpar performances, the 49ers are still a slight favorite at most online sportsbooks.

Can the San Fran defense shake off the cobwebs and slow down the Kansas City offense? The Niners will definitely have their hands full against Patrick Mahomes. It's amazing that Mahomes has gotten his team in the position of defending their title, even with a lackluster group of wide receivers.

Will the moment be too big for Brock Purdy? Chris Jones and the Chiefs pass rush will be doing everything they can to make Purdy feel uncomfortable. Good luck with however you decide to bet the Big Game!

July 28 Odds Update

The odds board for Super Bowl LVIII looks very similar to the numbers available in February, with some re-shuffling at the top. Kansas City remains the favorite to repeat as champions, currently offered at +600 on DraftKings.

The rest of the original top six are still present but in a slightly different order. Philadelphia has leapfrogged San Francisco and Buffalo to assume the runner-up position on the board at +650. The Eagles drafted Georgia defensive standouts Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith to add to an already frightening unit after falling to KC in the Super Bowl.

The 49ers (+1000) now trail the Bills (+900) by a slim margin, and Brock Purdy has returned to the team for training camp to take his first reps since an injury ended his season and the team’s championship hopes in the NFC title game.

Cincinnati (+1100) and Dallas (+1400) are still in the fifth and sixth positions. At the time of this writing, Joe Burrow was carted off the field at camp after a leg injury that we’re awaiting more news on.

The Jets (+1600) have risen into the top eight, as have the Ravens (+1800), thanks to confirmed positive news at QB. Aaron Rodgers recently restructured his deal with New York to be more team-friendly, while Jackson signed his long-term extension with Baltimore in late April.

The Raiders and Packers have fallen toward the bottom of the list, both at +6500, since their quarterbacks left town. Vegas has their work cut out for them in a brutal division, but Green Bay could surprise some teams if Jordan Love proves to be an effective NFL starter.

Super Bowl FAQ

Want to increase your NFL knowledge for trivia purposes or just plain bragging rights? We've got you covered. We've done the research and listed the most commonly asked questions and answers about the Super Bowl.

Have an NFL question that isn't listed below? Hit us up on Twitter @EatWatchBet or email us at [email protected]. We'll answer your question right here!

What NFL team has won the most Super Bowls?

The NFL team with the most Super Bowl wins is the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a total of 6 championships. The Steelers won their first Super Bowl in 1975, and they're most recent in 2009. The New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers are tied for the second-most Super Bowl wins with 5 championships each.

Who has won the most Super Bowl MVP awards?

The NFL player with the most Super Bowl MVP (Most Valuable Player) awards is Tom Brady, who has won the award a record-setting 5 times. Brady won his first Super Bowl MVP award in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002 and his most recent in Super Bowl LV in 2021. Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw are tied for the second-most Super Bowl MVP awards, with each winning the award 3 times.

What teams have never won a Super Bowl?

As of the end of the 2022 NFL season, there are 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl. These teams are:

  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Detroit Lions
  • Houston Texans
  • Los Angeles Chargers (formerly San Diego Chargers)
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Tennessee Titans (formerly Houston Oilers)
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Jacksonville Jaguars

All other NFL teams have won at least one Super Bowl.

Who was the last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP?

The last defensive player to win a Super Bowl MVP is Von Miller, who took home the award for Super Bowl 50! Miller recorded 6 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a pass defended.

What famous quarterback guaranteed that his team would win a Super Bowl?

One of the most famous guarantees in NFL history was made by Joe Namath, the quarterback of the New York Jets, prior to Super Bowl III. Namath guaranteed that the Jets would defeat the heavily favored Baltimore Colts, who was considered one of the greatest teams in NFL history. Despite the odds against them, Namath and the Jets pulled off the upset, winning the game 16-7 on January 12, 1969. Namath was named the Super Bowl MVP, and his guarantee has become one of the most iconic moments in NFL history.

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