It's no surprise that more people love to bet on football more than any other sport. However, with teams only playing one game a week, the chances to churn out a solid ROI are limited on the gridiron. It's nothing like that with MLB, as there are multiple games on each day's schedule that present positive EV betting opportunities.
2023 was another solid MLB campaign, as our best bets went 134-102 for an overall profit of +16.7 units. Our MLB strikeout props were also a nice addition this season, as they went 61-44 for +15 units. Let us let you in on a little tidbit: You don't have to like baseball to make money on it!
Since the MLB Playoffs are here, we're going to let you know our best baseball secrets. Check out our MLB betting guide to learn how to make more money!
The first thing I tell folks who've never bet on MLB before is to expect one heck of a roller coaster ride! Since there are lots of games each day, you can expect to go through both exhilarating winning streaks and hormonally depleting losing skids.
No matter how great or poorly the prior day was, you have to put it out of your mind and focus on the current day's card. This may sound easy to do, but I assure you it isn't.
There's nothing worse than doing hours of research only to see your team's closer give up a 3-run dinger to lose your bet! This is where keeping a long-term perspective comes into play. Try to focus more on monthly results instead of daily or weekly.
Yes, I know you've all heard me preach on this til I'm blue in the face. I won't shut up about the importance of managing your bankroll until they plant me into the ground. Since there are so many games in the MLB season, I highly recommend a conservative 1% bet on each play.
This will help you weather the inevitable downturns that come with a long, six-month season. While some folks in the sports betting space may advocate increasing your bet sizes during a winning streak, that's not something I adhere to, especially in such a streaky sport like baseball.
Calculate your bankroll on opening day and divide it by 100. That's going to be your bet size for the entire MLB season. Is it boring? Maybe, but it'll put you in the best position to win long-term.
Since most football bettors are used to betting on the point spread and paying the standard -110 juice, I think it's important to mention that baseball (and hockey for that matter) are moneyline sports. This means that you're only wagering on who you think will win the game. There's no spread to cover unless you decide to play the -1.5/+1.5 line.
Though the process may sound simple, you need to be careful with making a lot of picks with lots of juice. You may have heard that you have to hit a winning rate of 52.38% just to break even in sports betting at standard -110 odds. However, if you take a -200 favorite, you must win at a 66.7% clip just to break even.
That just goes to show you how powerful the juice is for the bookmaker. How do I handle this? I rarely place a baseball wager that's over -150. That's kind of my cut-off point and one that I recommend to anyone who wants to bet MLB.
Here's another tip I'll never quit talking about! Once you have nailed down your MLB betting card for the day, you have to shop around at all of the legal sportsbooks in your state for the best price. This one tip can save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars each season.
Let me show you what I mean. Joe Blow sports bettor only bets with one sportsbook and has no trouble laying around -150 on most of his plays. John Doe sports bettor has accounts with 10-15 sportsbooks and is vigilant about always finding the best price. For this example, let's say that Mr. Doe finds -142 instead of Mr. Blow's -150 on each play.
Now, 8 cents certainly doesn't sound like much, but let's math it up for an entire MLB season. If both bettors wager to win $100 on each play, that means that Mr. Doe saves 8 dollars on each of his losses. Again, that isn't much to write home about but remember that the MLB regular season is 6 months long.
So, let's say both of these fellas bet the same games and they each experience 2 losses per week on these -150 and -142 plays. Mr. Doe saves $16 per week on his losses times 24 weeks. That ultimately saves him $384 in juice.
Need a more efficient way to shop for the best price? We've got you covered. Check out our free odds checker to automatically find which sportsbook in your state is offering the best odds. Good luck!
If you're new to MLB betting, you have to look at this as a long-term experiment. If something isn't working, feel free to scrap it and try something different. There are lots of right ways to being a profitable baseball bettor.
Lots of guys do well taking a metrics-based approach to baseball. These are your typical seam-head stat nerds who love searching for things like K-rates, hard-hit rates, and OPS. If you don't enjoy statistics, don't follow this approach.
Other MLB bettors do well by simply riding hot teams and fading cold teams. This may sound elementary, but it works. I start paying attention if a team has lost 3 in a row or won 3 in a row. In a sport like baseball, those streaks can last a week or two, and this is where even novice bettors can capitalize.
Yes, I mentioned the F-word, FUN! Sure, baseball and sports betting in general is hard work, but it should be considered a labor of love. If your betting process drains you instead of exciting you, it's time for some days off or a different type of process.
I always know it's time for a day or two off when analyzing the card seems more like a chore than a privilege. I've personally found that my winning percentage goes up when I take the weekends off from MLB betting. Remember, there are games every day, so you aren't missing out by taking a much-needed break.
That's it for now. I'll add a few more tips as they come to me. Just wanted to share some of the things that have helped keep me in the MLB betting game for more than 22 years. Thanks for reading, and good luck during the playoffs!