We’ve begun to find our footing when betting MLB props after a shaky 3-7 start to the season. Six plays from last week finished with a 3-2 record across two days, with one wager voided due to a postponement.
Our takeaway so far has been that pitching is wildly inconsistent from start to start, and finding the best number is extremely important. As for hitters, we will continue to fade those players who are not getting on base or making solid contact frequently enough until that trend turns around.
Friday’s slate includes one afternoon game in Detroit, where the Tigers host the Royals at 1:10 pm ET. The league will take the field tonight under the lights. We have three plays for the day and outline our best bets just ahead. All lines are courtesy of the Underdog Fantasy app.
Jazz Chisholm UNDER 2.0 Hits+Runs+RBI
The outfielder is striking out less and walking a lot more (11.4%), but he’s hitting grounders on 48.4% of batted balls, and his home run rate is down to a shocking 1.9%. Despite a top-50 walk rate and .339 BAbip, he owns a .699 OPS. loanDepot Park has not been a comfortable place for Jazz this season either.
The 26-year-old is slashing .192/.309/.298 with a 32.7% strikeout rate at his home stadium in 55 plate appearances for a struggling Marlins team. Washington’s Trevor Williams will look to capitalize on an opportunity to face Miami during an encouraging start to his season.
The veteran righty has a 0.969 WHIP and has yet to allow a home run after watching 34 pitches of his get deposited over the fence in 2023, the most in the National League. Despite Chisholm’s ability to hit right-handed pitching much better, we don’t think he gets the best of the Nats on Friday.
Jeimer Candelario UNDER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Candelario’s OPS is 150 points lower against righties this season, with a 34% strikeout rate compared to 23% against left-handers. He’s been ice cold since rejoining the lineup after a brief rest and the team’s return to Cincinnati on Apri 20, managing two hits in his last 21 plate appearances and seeing his batting average drop under .180 on the season.
His BAbip is low at .244, but it’s not like Candarlio has been unlucky. The third baseman’s average exit velocity (84.9 miles per hour) and hard-hit rate (31.9%) on batted balls are the worst marks in his career. For being the player with the highest salary on the team, Candelario has dug himself a hole in the eyes of Reds fans, though there is plenty of time to turn it around.
Nathan Eovaldi will toe the rubber against the Reds, and the 2023 All-Star has had his own struggles to begin the season. He’s been roughed up over the last two starts, but Eovaldi will see a Cincinnati lineup that put up goose eggs in two of their four games against Philadelphia to begin the week. Candelario is not the player we expect to make Eovaldi’s slide continue.
Taylor Ward UNDER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Ward started the season with a bang, ripping three home runs and driving in eight over LA’s first two series against Baltimore and Miami. He hit safely in 14 of 16 games to begin the year but has cooled off significantly in his last ten contests.
The left fielder has nine hits in 39 at-bats (.231) and just hit his first home run at home on Wednesday. Despite that big fly, Ward’s OPS at Angel Stadium is .687 through 38 plate appearances at his home park. The Halos are facing Minnesota’s Bailey Ober on Friday evening in Anaheim.
Ober has stabilized his performance following a shockingly poor season debut on Opening Day, going at least five innings in three consecutive starts and allowing just eight hits, three walks, and two runs over 17 frames. These two players are currently heading in opposite directions, and we lean toward the pitcher in this matchup.
