UFC returns to the Apex this weekend when flyweights Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez headline a 13-fight card. Below are 4 best bets to consider before the fights kick off at 4 PM EST. Let's get into it! Good luck, folks!
Parlay: Ketlen Souza ML + Jhonata Diniz ML -122 (Bet365)
Souza makes her return after suffering a knee injury to a Karine Silva submission last year. We usually fade fighters in these situations, but her opponent, Marnic Mann, is simply not UFC level.
Mann constantly leaves herself square in front of her opponents in striking exchanges and has little to throw back at them. Her only strength is her wrestling. Still, I expect Souza to do enough defensively to stay upright and exploit Mann's stand-up.
A former kickboxer, Jhonata Diniz will make his debut after a great showing in his Dana White Contender Series fight. He'll take on the former NFL player Austen Lane on the main card.
Similar to the Mann Souza fight, this is more of me fading our pick's opponent.
Lane has been TKO'd in all of his losses so far. He's extremely athletic but lacks the technical skills to throw with experienced strikers. He throws wide hooks and wild kicks, leaving himself open to KO opportunities.
If Lane decides to wrestle, he may have a better chance. However, we've yet to see him use his wrestling, so expect and stand-up brawl with Diniz eventually finding Lane's questionable chin.
Uros Medic by KO/TKO -105 (FanDuel)
Tim Means's style doesn't last at his age. The 40-year-old likes to push forward and use a mix of boxing and clinch work to control his opponents. He usually eats plenty of shots because of this and has been dropped in three of his last five.
Medic hasn't looked great since moving up in weight class. However, he finished Matthew Semelsberger in his debut at Welterweight and came close to finishing Myktybek Orolbai in the first round of their fight.
Means is as tough as they come, but Medic should be too fast and powerful over the three rounds. I don't see The Dirty Bird making this one dirty enough. Look for Medic to secure his 8th TKO win in 12 fights.
Karine Silva ML -150 (Bet365)
The next big thing in women's flyweight makes her return to the octagon on Saturday. Karine Silva has mowed through her competition thus far, finishing all of her opponents by first-round submission since making her debut. Along with her deadly jiu-jitsu, she's shown that she can also throw heavy punches and kicks to end fights early as well.
Silva's toughest test to date will be Ariane Lipski. Lipski once struggled with her takedown defense but has since improved it in her three-fight win streak. She has fast hands and will look to out strike Silva for three rounds.What sets the two women apart is their ability to finish fights. Lipski doesn't have fight-ending power, and she doesn't want to grapple with Silva.
I'll give Silva the advantage here just by being the more dangerous fighter. I think she sets the pace early in this one before she catches Lipiski in a bad spot. Silva will have to prove she has a gas tank, but I can see her both finishing Lipiski or dominating her for three rounds with her grappling.
I used DK's SGP feature to combine her ML with over 0.5 rounds. Feel free to lay the juice on her ML or use her as a parlay piece.
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez o3.5 Rounds -125 (Caesars)
Already a patient fighter, the favorite Nicolau will be in his first five-round fight of his career in this week's main event. His last stoppage win was in 2022 when he TKO'd Matt Schnell, who has been finished 4 other times in his career. Nicolau's last finish before that in the UFC was in 2015.
Meanwhile, Perez has been finished in his previous bouts, but his recent record lacks stoppage wins as well. His last finish was a leg kick TKO in 2020, and he recently battled future title contender Muhammad Mokaev for 15 minutes in March.
With five rounds in mind, I think we see a slow fight to start with a mix of striking and grappling. Expect this one to go over and possibly to the final horn.
