Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.
Grand Slams are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll be looking at the same factors of a player to just hit a home run. Generally, with home runs I’m looking at a few factors: Weather conditions, opposing pitcher, and rolling barrel rate/ wRC+ for the batter.
Unlike Fanduel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, we’re less focused on games that will produce a lot of home runs and more focused on an individual matchup. We’ll be tracking our progress on this promo on EWB and hopefully cash in on our share of $50K this season!
Welcome to Jackpot Friday! BetMGM offers an exciting promotion every Friday where you bet one player (min $10) to hit a home run and if they hit a grand slam, you’ll win a share of $50,000 in bonus bets.
Best Bet for Friday, June 28th: Shohei Ohtani (+550)
This is a simple one folks, it’s just an egregious price on one of the games’ best hitters. There are a couple factors that are going against Ohtani in this match up. Logan Webb is on the hill for the Giants, who’s great at keeping the ball on the ground.
That being said, Ohtani leading off for this Dodgers team on the road will get him a few at bats against a soft Giants bullpen who has had issues giving up the long ball in 2024. Oracle Park can be a difficult place for home runs, particularly for lefties given its deep right-center dimensions and 24’ wall in right field. If anyone in the league has the power to hit through these dimensions it's Ohtani, so I feel like this line at +550 is an overstatement.
We don’t need to read off Ohtani’s savant stats to convince you that he’s one of the best hitters in baseball, but there’s a couple points to be made about why Logan Webb isn’t the toughest matchup for Ohtani. Ohtani is a great fastball hitter, but has also been great facing the sinker, which is Logan Webb’s primary pitch.
Ohtani has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but Webb’s 21% K-rate is just average. Webb has great command but relies heavily on getting batters to hit the ball on the ground. When Webb has left the ball up in the zone he’s been punished in 2024, currently one of the worst in the league in terms of hard hit %.
When those pitches aren’t hit into the dirt, they are doing damage as seen in Webb’s .281 xBA. I think +550 is way too big of a price to assume that Webb won’t make any mistakes to Ohtani, or that Ohtani won’t be able to get underneath a pitch at the bottom of the zone. Let’s hope the Dodgers can load them up for Ohtani and get an opportunity at a grand slam!
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