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Euro 2024 Round of 16 Best Bets and Predictions

Earnest Horn
Written by Earnest Horn
June 28, 2024
Euro 2024 Round of 16 Best Bets

With group play in the books and the official bracket set, we are on to the knockout stage of Euro 2024. 16 teams advance and it's winner-take-all from here on out.

The Round of 16 begins on Saturday, June 29th, and will wrap up on Tuesday, July 2nd. Here is the complete schedule for this first round of knockout play:

Saturday, June 29

  • Switzerland vs. Italy (12:00 PM EDT)
  • Germany vs. Denmark (3:00 PM EDT)

Sunday, June 30

  • England vs. Slovakia (12:00 PM EDT)
  • Spain vs. Georgia (3:00 PM EDT)

Monday, July 1

  • France vs. Belgium (12:00 PM EDT)
  • Portugal vs. Slovenia (3:00 PM EDT)

Tuesday, July 2

  • Romania vs. Netherlands (12:00 PM EDT)
  • Austria vs. Turkey (3:00 PM EDT)
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Our Best Bets for the Round of 16

While there were no truly shocking outcomes from group play, we did have some surprises with the final standings which has resulted in some intriguing first-round matchups.

Both France and Belgium were heavy betting favorites to win their group, but neither did and they now face each other in the Round of 16. Austria stunned many by winning Group D but will face a Turkey team that finished 2-0-1 in Group F. Denmark drew all 3 of its games in Group C and will pose a challenge to host country Germany who cruised through Group A.

We've analyzed the entire Group of 16 slate and have identified our 2 best bets from these 8 games.

Netherlands to Win + Romania Under .5 Goals (+120)

In our Euro 24 preview, we called the Dutch defense the best in the tournament, but they surrendered 3 goals to Austria just days after holding France scoreless.

To us, this is a worst-case scenario for Romania. Rather than riding high having finished 2-0-1 in group play, the Netherlands defense, led by Virgil van Dijk, enter the Round of 16 looking to send a message.

The Dutch should enjoy plenty of possession and the combination of Depay and Gakpo should have no problem finding a goal. We think this game finishes 2-0 to the Netherlands and will take +120 odds on a same game parlay of Netherlands ML and Romania Under 0.5 Goals.

Portugal ML + France vs Belgium Under 2.5 Goals (+117)

Portugal over Slovenia at -260 is arguably the best price available on a Round of 16 result that would be a shock to not cash. Portugal cruised through its opening 2 games before letting up on the gas in the final game of group stages. Slovenia found its way out of group stages despite not winning a game and scoring just 2 goals in 3 games.

Why is this price set at -260? Slovenia won a friendly between these teams (2-0) in March and surrendered just 2 goals in a tough group. That said, Portugal had nearly 80% possession in that friendly and had won the previous 3 meetings between these teams.

France are -110 favorites against Belgium, with a total of 2.5 juiced at -175 to the under. After an opening-game injury to Mbappe, France managed to score just 2 goals in group play finishing with a win and 2 draws.

That said, the France defense has been extremely impressive allowing just 1 goal in 3 games. Belgium managed just 2 goals in its 3 games against Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine. That includes being shut out in 2 of those 3 matchups. We think goals will be hard to come by in this one and feel confident making under 2.5 goals our best bet.

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