The predictions are flying in the buildup to the biggest annual sporting event in the world. Beyond the projected winner and score of the Super Bowl, taking a crack at which player will be named the most valuable during his team's winning effort offers a lot of upside. We dug into these award winners' historical and recent trends before listing our favorites to capture the award in 2024.
QBs have been named the MVP in 32 of the 57 Super Bowls. DraftKings is offering odds for the position of the winning player as well as quarterbacks against the rest of the field, currently listing the signal callers at -265 to win MVP over everyone else. In the last ten Super Bowls, six quarterbacks have won MVPs, along with two receivers and two linebackers, which gives a 12.6% edge to the non-QBs over that recent sample size.
Speaking of non-quarterbacks, wide receivers have the most awards of the other position groups, and there has been some recent success to support their odds again this year. Five of the nine receivers to win SB MVP have occurred in the last 19 editions.
From there, it's worth looking into defensive players. Ten players on defense have won or shared the award, with linebackers representing four of those winners. 1978 produced the only Super Bowl with co-MVPs when Dallas Cowboys defensive linemen Harvey Martin and Randy White shared the honors in a victory over the Denver Broncos.
Shifting back to the offensive side of the ball, running backs are in an MVP drought. Terrell Davis is the last to win Super Bowl MVP, accomplishing the feat in 1998. Seven ball carriers, including fullbacks, have won the award. Of the four tailbacks to do so in the modern game, three came between 1991 and 1998, and Marcus Allen received the honor in 1984.
No tight end has won the Super Bowl MVP. Making his fourth appearance this year, Kansas City's Travis Kelce is a popular choice to buck that trend. He's averaged 7.3 catches and 85.6 yards with two touchdowns in three previous chances.
Best Bets
After digging into every player on the board, we've settled on three investments for Super Bowl LVIII MVP. Keep in mind that we are only recommending a small bet on each of these, not a full unit play.
A good way to play it may be a half unit on CMC and a 0.1-unit sprinkle on the other two. BEst of luck, folks!
Christian McCaffrey +400 (Caesars)
If the first two games of the postseason are any indication for this 49ers team, we like McCaffrey to provide superior value to that of Brock Purdy if San Fran wins the title.
CMac posted 24 touches, 125+ total yards, and two touchdowns in both the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds en route to his first Super Bowl appearance.
For more than twice the odds of Purdy, we like McCaffrey to get the primary credit for a 49ers' victory in his role as a hybrid runner/receiver.
Rashee Rice +5000 (FanDuel)
Rice is our pick to represent the receiver contingent in these SB MVP best bets due to his increasing involvement in the Chiefs' passing game, the attention likely to be paid to Kelce by the Niners, and the recent history of receivers winning the award when it isn't a QB.
Mahomes already has two of these individual trophies to go with two Lombardis, trailing only Tom Brady (5) and Joe Montana (3), and we see this factoring into voting where he'll see diminishing returns due to past success.
If Rice sees 9+ targets for the third time this postseason, it's feasible that he can do the damage necessary to win the award if Kansas City comes out victorious again.
Fred Warner +14000 (FanDuel)
In the longshot category, we like the dynamic, 3x First-team All-Pro to stand out on defense if San Francisco leaves with a Lombardi Trophy. He's posted 20 total tackles in two playoff games and is in rare company with his production in terms of tackling and forcing turnovers.
Warner is one of five linebackers since 1999 to post 520+ tackles, 6+ sacks, 7+ forced fumbles, 5+ fumble recoveries, and 7+ interceptions in a four-season span. That unique combination could net us a colossal payday at these odds.
