After another wild and entertaining NFL season, the playoffs will kick off on January 13. Fourteen teams will battle it out for the chance to win this year's Lombardi Trophy. Though the Ravens and 49ers seem to be on a collision course for Super Bowl LVIII, we all know that anything can happen in this league.
One of the more intriguing matchups of NFL Wildcard Weekend is Sunday's Packers at Cowboys tilt. Check out the live odds, best bets, and player props to win BIG right here. Enjoy the game and best of luck with all of your NFL Playoffs action.
Live Odds for Packers at Cowboys
After going 12-5 and a perfect 8-0 at home, the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys will get to host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, January 14. Green Bay was only 9-8 this season and just 4-5 away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. That being said, the Packers will be a tough out, especially since QB Jordan Love has been playing much better.
Oddsmakers opened up this line Dallas -7, but a flurry of early money almost immediately sent the line to Dallas -7.5. That isn't all that surprising when you consider how dominant the Cowboys have been when playing at Jerry World. The total opened at 49.5 before being bet up the current number of 50.5.
Can Jordan Love and his young receivers do enough to stay within this number? Or will Dan Quinn's Dallas defense figure out how to slow down the Pack Attack?
Do the Packers Have an Edge on the Ground?
Even though Green Bay has endured a ton of injuries along the O-line, they've still ran the ball quite effectively this season. The Packers rank a respectable 9th in yards per rush and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have combined to rush for 1,269 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those two beasts could have success against this Dallas defense.
As good as Dan Quinn's bunch has been, they do only rank a very average 15th in yards per rush allowed (4.2). Johnathan Hankins and Osa Odighizuwa do a decent job of clogging the middle, but stopping the run definitely isn't a strength of this Cowboys defense.
A key question for Green Bay will be if they can keep the game close enough. If the Packers fall behind more than one score, they may be forced to abandon the run. That would play right into two of Dallas's strengths, which are rushing the passer with Micah Parsons and defending the pass with good DBs like Donovan Wilson and Stephon Gilmore.
Can Dak Pick Apart the Green Bay Secondary?
The Cowboys run game has been a bit disappointing, as Tony Pollard just hasn't had the kind of year that most folks in Big D were expecting. Thankfully for Dallas, Dak Prescott has had his best season as a pro. The former Mississippi State star threw for 4,516 yards and 36 TD this season and he only threw 9 picks.
Prescott has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to pass catchers. The cream of the crop is CeeDee Lamb, who finished 1st in the league in receptions (135) and 2nd in receiving yards (1,749). However, Green Bay can't ignore guys like Jake Ferguson (71 rec, 761 yds, 5 TD) and Brandin Cooks (54 rec, 657 yds, 8 TD).
Green Bay's defense ranks just 20th in yards per pass allowed, while Dallas's offense ranks 6th in yards per pass gained. To make things short and sweet: It should be a big day for Dak and his favorite targets.
Best Bet: Cowboys -7 (buy)
I'm personally playing this at Hard Rock, where the line is -7 (-115) at the time of this writing. However, I'm fine with buying this down to -7 as long as you're getting (-125) or better. Heck, I'm also good with the current reduced juice that FanDuel is offering on Dallas -7.5.
At the risk of oversimplifying things, I just can't bet against Dallas at AT&T Stadium. They've won 16 straight games at home, and I don't see that changing, even against an upstart Green Bay squad. As good as Love has been, this is still going to be his first road playoff game.
The Cowboys offense may get most of the hype, but I think their main edge is on defense and special teams in this matchup. Dallas ranks 9th in yards per pass allowed (6.3) and 4th in opponent completion percentage. DaRon Bland leads the league in interceptions (9), and he's returned 5 picks for touchdowns this season.
Also, don't forget about how big of a weapon Brandon Aubrey is for the 'Boys'. The 28-year-old made 36 of his 38 field goal tries this season, and he was a perfect 10 for 10 from 50+ yards. Anytime Dallas gets the ball past mid-field, they can almost automatically count on at least 3 points.
There's also just some sheer value in the number. According to my power ratings, Dallas should be around a 10-point favorite when you factor in how insanely good they've been at home. Let's lay the points in what should be a comfortable win for Dak Prescott and Company. How bout them Cowboys?
Player Props for Green Bay at Dallas
Not all player prop options are available yet, but I did find three that I just can't resist. I'm going to post it below and then come back and add a few more as more lines are released. With a total in the low 50s, there should be some opportunities for some Overs.
Jordan Love OVER 1.5 Passing TD (-125) (FanDuel)
This may be my favorite player prop bet on the entire board for this game. Love has been fantastic during his first season as the Packers starting signal caller. The former Utah State standout has tossed 2 or more touchdown passes in 11 of his 17 ball games this season.
Current form is also on our side with this play, as Love has gone over this total in 8 of his last 9 outings. Yes, I do like the Dallas secondary, but Green Bay does have some nice weapons at receiver. I expect Love to hook up with Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, or Dontayvion Wicks for at least 2 passing TDs in this one.
Lastly, the Packers are more than a touchdown underdog in this contest. That could lead to Green Bay falling behind and needing to chuck the ball around the yard even more than they normally do. That also helps our case for the Over on this one.
Dak Prescott OVER 1.5 Passing TD (-170) (PointsBet)
Faithful readers of my articles know that I hate laying over -150 or so with player props. However, PointsBet is giving us too much value on this one. Most sportsbooks have this priced in the -200 or higher range, which is where I think it should be priced.
It's hard to argue with Prescott's success this season. He's thrown 2 or more touchdowns in 9 of his last 10 games and his median number of TD passes is 2 this season. Most sportsbooks are also posting Dallas's team total in the 29.5 to 30.5 range.
That implies that the Cowboys are expected to score 4 touchdowns in this matchup. There's no reason at least two of those won't come from the arm of Mr. Prescott. Let's play another Over!
Aaron Jones UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-125) (BetMGM)
Jones appears to finally be 100% healthy for the first time all year, much to the delight of all Packer fans. The 29-year-old missed 6 games due to injury this season, but he's gone over 100 rushing yards in 3 straight games. Jones could do well on the ground in this game, but I don't see him making much of an impact as a pass-catcher.
For the season, Jones has a median receptions number of 3 and he's only getting around 4 targets per game. The former UTEP star has stayed under this total in 6 of his 11 outings this season. I know it was with a different QB, but Jones grabbed 3 receptions or less in 12 of his 17 games last season.
This Cowboys defense is the real deal against the pass, especially when it comes to limiting running backs. Dallas only allows 3.6 receptions per game to the RB position, which is the 3rd lowest in the NFL. Let's take the Under on this one!
