Our props went 1-1 last week with a voided play on Michael Mayer since we could not locate a number on his receiving yards. Breece Hall couldn’t manage to crack 80 scrimmage yards, which meant we lost on his over, but the reliable Greg Zuerlein drilled all four of his field goal attempts to give us a winner. That split means our record over the last six weeks is 10-6 on Sunday Night Football prop plays as we look ahead to the matchup between the Vikings and Broncos from Denver.
Minnesota is on a five-game winning streak during which they’ve won outright as underdogs in the last four weeks. They’ve scored 58 points in two games started by Jaren Hall and Joshua Dobbs and are again a dog on the road for this matchup with the Broncos.
Denver is favored by 2.5 points on home turf and is on a three-game winning streak of their own entering Week 11. The Broncos are coming off a Monday night road win in Buffalo and a convincing win at home against Kansas City amid their turnaround from a disappointing start to the Sean Payton era. The two teams began this season 1-4 and have gone a combined 8-1 since.
Both T.J. Hockenson and Alexander Mattison practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday. Notably, so did Justin Jefferson. The All-Pro receiver has shared that he won’t return to the field until his hamstring is 100% healthy, and it appears that won’t be this week despite positive indications from his practice log.
On Denver’s side, Jerry Jeudy also had a limited practice session on Thursday after being a full participant the day before. Our prop best bets are locked in for SNF Week 11 ahead of this primetime meeting; read on for the details.
Dobbs has rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns during his two games as a Viking. He now faces a Denver defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in rush defense and yards per attempt allowed.
The Broncos' 50-point loss to the Dolphins represents an outlier in that sample due to the team allowing 350 rushing yards to Miami, but they've still given up 130+ rushing yards in four of six games since.
Denver's pass defense has held their last three opponents to an average of 194 yards per game, and we're projecting Dobbs to do some damage with his legs to offset a Denver secondary trending upward.
Williams has been targeted three or more times in seven of his eight games this season with underwhelming results. Regardless, he has re-established himself as the leader in the Denver backfield. Most of that recent work has come on the ground, where he ranks second in the league in carries over his last two games.
He's averaging just 5.2 yards per reception, and in the five games where Williams has caught 3+ passes, he's only reached 17 receiving yards once.
Minnesota recently held Alvin Kamara to 33 yards on seven catches and Bijan Robinson to under ten receiving yards, so we expect them to contain Williams as well.