Happy Dinger Tuesday! FanDuel has brought back one of our favorite promotions for the 2024 MLB season, albeit with some added restrictions.
How FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Works
Firstly, make sure to OPT-IN on FanDuel for the promotion. Then, for every in which you place a $25 bet on any player to hit a home run, you’ll receive a $5 free bet for each home run hit in the game. The free bets pay out regardless of whether your pick hits or not, and you can use this promotion on every game on the Tuesday slate.
The caveat here is that FanDuel introduced a new $25 limit in free bets per day (last year it was $50). Some accounts, perhaps newer ones, might still have the original promotion that has no limit on free bets. Because of this, we’ll only look to be releasing 2-3 bets per day.
I’ll be tracking all my home run plays here at EWB as well as the free bet conversions. Last year we picked up +17.3 units betting home runs or $432.5! (Tracking $25 as a unit given the promotion parameters)
Weather Report for April 30
The weather is looking decent for today, without any spots that we need to avoid for weather reasons. The forecast has the Orioles game at about 85 degrees with higher-than-average humidity for this time of year, as some rain will likely come in overnight.
Bet: Gunnar Henderson +450
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
I’m intrigued by this one with a slight breeze blowing out to straight center, and particularly warm temperatures on the forecast for tonight’s game. While neither Nestor Cortes nor Dean Kremer give up a ton of hard contact, both pitchers have a tendency to play to fly balls and are worse than average on average exit velocity.
With decent hitting conditions and a total at nine, I’d expect some of the game's best power hitters to come through in this matchup. Rather than pay a hefty premium for a star like Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Staton in this one, I have my sights lower down the board with Gunnar Henderson.
I think the books are over adjusting for the lefty-lefty matchup between Henderson and Cortes. Henderson just hit his 10th home run, tied for first in the league and has been matchup proof so far in 2024. He has 3 home runs with a .333 .ISO and 202 wRC+ against left handers in 2024. I’m liking the value on Gunnar out of the leadoff spot with some markets as low as +350.
Bet: Jose Ramirez +500
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
The Astros will need to come back to Earth Tuesday night, after playing two games in the extreme elevation in Mexico City, where they scored 20 total runs. The good news is they’ll return to the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park, where the hitting conditions are generally good, playing under the dome with hitter friendly dimensions.
Despite this, I’m looking at the other side of the matchup as Hunter Brown gets the ball again in the middle of a nightmare season. All of Brown’s metrics are extremely poor with a 6% K-BB and giving up a ton of hard contact. (Don’t look now but Carlos Carrasco’s metrics are just as poor for the Guardians…)
We’re looking at two teams that don’t really strike out, so two pitchers that are really struggling to put batters away is going to result in a lot of walks and high pitch counts. While a lot of walks isn’t ideal for dingers, we should see both bullpens in action very early on if these two pitchers continue to struggle the way they have in 2024.
I’m circling Jose Ramirez in this one getting a nice price of +500. Most of the Astros hitters are fairly juiced, given the matchup against Carrasco, but I’m surprised to see Cleveland’s power hitters lines unadjusted for the premier matchup. We’ll roll the dice with Ramirez in a matchup that I’m confident will produce quite a few homers.
4/23/24 Free Bet conversion: Bet $25 in bonus bets on Donovan Mitchell to score 30 points at +250 tonight
