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Our Top 5 Player Props for Super Bowl LVIII: Let's Ride 3 Overs to the Promise Land!

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
February 9, 2024
Super Bowl LVIII Our Top 5 Player Props for the Big Game

According to a CNBC piece from last February, more than 100 million betting transactions were reported over Super Bowl weekend in 2023, the first time the big game was held in a state with legalized sports wagering. FanDuel Sportsbook shared that betting activity peaked at over 50,000 bets per minute during the game, which Kansas City won by a field goal over Philadelphia.

The prop market for the NFL's championship game is as varied as it is popular. In addition to game and player props, many bettors take advantage of recently legalized opportunities to wager on the big game in creative ways like the time of the national anthem, the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, and the pregame coin toss.

The Chiefs will again represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, this time at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, NV, just south of Las Vegas. The defending champions will face San Francisco with the Lombardi Trophy on the line for the second time in five seasons, having beaten the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV.

We're heading into Super Bowl LVIII on the heels of our best bet and both prop plays for the NFC Championship game cashing. Christian McCaffrey's rushing total went under by the smallest margin possible after the NFL's leading rusher carried the ball 20 times against Detroit.

At the same time, Lions' tight end Sam LaPorta doubled his reception total with nine catches on 13 targets to confirm a less sweaty winning ticket while his team covered the spread for us. We'd love to keep that momentum through the season's final game and present five prop bets that will be on our card for Super Bowl LVIII.

Brock Purdy OVER 20.5 Completions (-110) & UNDER 1.5 Pass TDs (+100)

  • The Chiefs' run defense has been increasingly impenetrable as the season's worn on, forcing teams to throw. In three playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, opposing quarterbacks have attempted between 37 and 39 passes against KC.
  • Purdy's pass volume has been elevated over his last four starts, up to 32.5 from a regular season average of 27.8.
  • In four playoff starts where he's completed the game, Purdy has five touchdown passes. In three of those games, including both this year, he's thrown one or fewer TDs.
  • The 49ers stick with the run inside the 10-yard line. Of Christian McCaffrey's four rushing touchdowns in this year's playoffs, three have come from within six yards of the goal line.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-105 @ Caesars)

  • The show goes on for Kansas City's battering ram of a running back. He's posted two games of 24 carries this postseason and is averaging 4.0 yards per carry on a league-leading 63 playoff rushing attempts.
  • Late in a close contest against the Bills, Pacheco racked up eight of his 15 carries in the final 18 minutes of game time. This included when KC was down by four and up by three points, indicating that they trust their young back to produce in crucial moments.
  • San Francisco allowed a combined 246 yards on 45 carries (5.5 ypc) to Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Jahmyr Gibbs over the last two weeks. We expect Andy Reid to exploit the same gaps.

George Karlaftis OVER 0.25 Sacks (+110 @ DraftKings)

  • Another young, important player for the Chiefs, Karlaftis has been disrupting backfields all season. He's one of 17 defensive ends in the last 20 years to hit double-digit sacks in his second year as a pro.
  • More recently, he has four sacks in his last four games, including 2.5 in three playoff games to lead the team.
  • Purdy took at least one sack in both games leading up to the Super Bowl this postseason.

Kyle Juszczyk UNDER 0.5 Receptions (+140 @ Caesars)

  • Juszczyk's role in the 49ers' offense, specifically their passing game, has diminished over the last two seasons. From 38 targets in 2021 to 23 in 2022 and now 17 in 2023, the All-Pro fullback is seeing fewer opportunities to touch the ball.
  • Juszczyk caught passes in seven of 17 regular season games this season, and his snap count fell to 46%.
  • With the alternative side of this play climbing near -170 at several outlets, we'll take the chance that he doesn't secure a reception at plus odds.
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