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San Francisco at Minnesota: Player Props for MNF

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
October 23, 2023
San Francisco at Minnesota Player Props for MNF

Week 7 of the NFL regular season wraps up with an NFC matchup that many will enjoy. The San Francisco 49ers will look to right the ship after enduring a shocking road loss to the Cleveland Browns last week.

Oddsmakers are forecasting a nice bounce back for the Niners, as they are currently a 6-5-point favorite over the Vikings. Minnesota has had a rough go of it this year, as they come in at 2-4 and are searching for someone to step up for the injured Jordan Jefferson.

While we don't have a play on the side, we were able to dig up a few player props for Monday Night Football. Good luck with your bets!

Brandon Aiyuk OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (Unibet)

Here's a line that looks at least 10 yards too short to me. Aiyuk is coming into his own as an NFL wideout and has gone over this receiving yardage total in 3 of 5 games this season. Aiyuk is also getting around 7 targets per game, which shows that Brock Purdy is developing more of a rapport with him.

Aiyuk, a former star at Arizona State, could also see even more action if Deebo Samuel doesn't suit up for this game. Samuel is a gamer, but he's currently listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. He also did not practice on Thursday, which boosts our case for a big game from Aiyuk even more.

From a mathematical standpoint, the Over looks like the play also. Aiyuk's median receiving yardage in 2023 is 76, which is worth mentioning even with the small sample size of only 5 games.

Minnesota's secondary isn't exactly elite either. The Viks have given up at least 66 yards to a single receiver in 5 of their 6 games this season. Let's roll the dice with the Over to get this MNF party started.

Kirk Cousins OVER 23.5 Pass Completions (PointsBet)

This is a nice price on Cousins because most books have this total set at 24.5. PointsBet and Fanatics have the best price at -125. If you don't have access to either of those, check out FanDuel at -130.

We all know that Minnesota is allergic to running the football, as they rank dead last in rushing play percentage at a tad over 31%. Kevin O'Connell loves to air it out and he'll try to do plenty of that in this game, especially since the Vikings are a full touchdown underdog.

Here are a few mathematical edges with this Over. Cousins has a median completion number of 30 this season, and he's gone over 23.5 completions in 4 of his 6 games. Even with last year's 17 game sample size, Cousins's median was 24. Let's ride another Over!

Jordan Addison UNDER 4.5 Receptions (FanDuel)

I love Addison and think he'll one day be one of the league's top wideouts. However, this number is too high even with Justin Jefferson on IR. Addison will be going up against a San Fran secondary that ranks 2nd in EPA allowed per drop back and 5th in drop back success rate.

Also, the Niners d-line is ferocious, and they'll be pressuring Cousins all night without having to blitz linebackers or safeties. That means Cousins should have to check the ball down short to either TJ Hockenson over the middle or Alexander Mattison in the flat.

Lastly, Addison's median number of receptions this season is 3.5. I get that the oddsmakers wanted to increase this because of Jefferson's injury. However, Addison's poor performance against the Bears secondary last week makes me lean toward the Under.

The best price on this one can be found at FanDuel for -113. That's a pretty good deal considering that most books have this one at around -130 or so. Let's go 3-0 tonight, folks!

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