NFL Week 13 is here and there are plenty of marquee matchups to hold our attention on Sunday. The Detroit Lions will head to New Orleans to take on the Saints, with the hopes of avoiding back-to-back losses. Another early game to keep an eye on will be Denver at Houston.
The afternoon window only gives us 3 games, but one of them is a whopper. We'll be treated to an NFC Championship Game rematch as San Francisco heads to Philadelphia. You know Kyle Shanahan and Co. are primed for some sweet revenge in that one.
After a perfect 3-0 sweep on Monday Night Football, our NFL player props are on a 7-1 hot streak. Check out what we have cooked up for Week 13. Good luck with all of your player prop bets this week.
Samuel is coming off his best performance of the season, and I expect Sam Howell to keep dialing up his number in this game against the Dolphins. Last week against Dallas, Samuel earned 12 targets and 9 receptions. Miami pressures the QB quite well (6th in sack rate), so look for Samuel to catch plenty of screens out of the slot like he did on Thanksgiving.
For the season, Samuel's median number of receptions is 4. He's hauled in 4 or more catches in 7 of his 11 ball games in 2023. Miami's defense has improved, but they still only rank 26th in opponent completion percentage (68.25%).
Lastly, the potential game script favors an Over for Samuel. The Commanders are a 9.5-point underdog against the Dolphins and their high-powered offense. Washington leads the NFL with 40.5 pass attempts per game, and they should be throwing the ball all over the yard in this one.
Call me stubborn if you want to, but I'm going to ride the Tyreek Hill train until he throws me off. We've cashed a few receptions prop with Hill this season, including one on Black Friday against the Jets. Washington has a suspect secondary, so look for Mike McDaniel to find plenty of ways to get Hill the ball.
Just how bad is the Commanders pass defense? They rank next to last (31st) in yards per pass allowed (7.5). Hill is the best wideout in the league, and there's no reason he won't torch these guys on Sunday. Hill's median this season is 8 receptions and he's gone over this total in 8 of 11 games.
There are only 3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and Hill getting lots of targets. Hill's median number of targets is 11! Don't over think this one. Take the over, as long as the juice is under -150 or so.
"Smitty" has really came on the last few weeks and I expect his hot streak to continue, even against a very good San Fran defense. The Niners best corner, Charvarius Ward, will be matched up with AJ Brown. This should leave plenty of opportunities for Smith on the right side, where Ambry Thomas will be guarding him.
Thomas isn't a bad corner, but he's not nearly as strong as Ward. Surprisingly, San Fran ranks just 21st in opponent completion percentage (66.59%). Look for Jalen Hurts to hook up with his old Alabama teammate quite often in this game.
Smith's median target number is 7 this season. He's gotten 8 targets in each of the last 2 games. He's also grabbed 5 or more receptions in 3 of his last 4 outings. Let's play the Over!
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