A pair of historic rivalries will be renewed on Thanksgiving when the Packers meet the Lions at Ford Field to kick off the proceedings, followed by Washington traveling to play Dallas in the dinner timeslot. Green Bay and Detroit will play for the 189th time overall in their long and familiar NFL journey together, while the Commanders and Cowboys will resume their feud for the 127th edition since 1960.
2023 marks the 22nd time the Packers and Lions will play on Thanksgiving; Detroit owns the series lead 12-8-1. This extends their joint record as the opponents with the most Turkey Day meetings in league history. For Washington and Dallas, this Thanksgiving will be their 11th matchup on the 4th Thursday of November, with the Cowboys owning an 8-2 edge.
The third game of this trio features a more recent but still passionate division rivalry between San Francisco and Seattle. The Seahawks have won 30 of the 50 games between the two, including 15 of the last 20, and emerged victorious from their latest Thanksgiving date in 2014.
Detroit is favored by eight points with a total that’s reached 47 after opening at 44.5. The Commanders are the biggest underdog of the day, getting 11 points from the Cowboys. Their total has jumped from 45 to 48.5, the highest number among the three games.
Finally, the Niners are 6.5-point road favorites over the Seahawks in their goal to win a second straight game at Lumen Field. San Fran’s win in Seattle last year was their first since 2019 and only their second since 2011. This NFC West point total has fallen slightly to 42.5 with a couple of days until kickoff.
David Montgomery OVER 5.5 Receiving Yards
Montgomery is not the back who will see many targets for Detroit compared to Jahmyr Gibbs, but this play only requires a single chance to come home a winner.
The former Chicago Bear has over 1,300 receiving yards in his career, and although his role has shifted in his first season as a Lion, Montgomery has been effective when targeted.
He’s caught a pass of 11 yards or more in four of his five most recent appearances, including against Green Bay back in September. We expect him to replicate that at home on Thanksgiving.
Sam Howell OVER 39.5 Pass Attempts
Washington has been looking for its next great quarterback for years. While it remains to be seen whether Howell is that player, he certainly hasn’t left anything on the field week after week for a team constantly chasing its opponents.
He’s rocketed to the NFL lead in passing attempts, completions, and yards after a five-week stretch that’s included 45.6 attempts and 307.6 yards per game. He’s also been sacked a good deal more than any other QB in 2023, an average of 4.6 per game.
This pressure also forces throwaways, which don’t help with yardage or completions but do for this measure. We’ll take Howell to continue his streak of games with 40+ throws against the Dallas defense this Thursday.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 0.5 Total Yards (Featured on Underdog)
At the start of the third football game on Thanksgiving, extreme drowsiness may have set in as people lose track of their food consumption for the day and possibly just woke up from a nap.
To make this final game more straightforward for our betting purposes, we’ll take advantage of Underdog’s promo offer for McCaffrey’s total yardage in a parlay addition that should cash on San Francisco’s first drive.
Happy Thanksgiving, folks. Best of luck and enjoy.
