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NCAA Tournament: Two Sweet 16 Betting Trends to Consider on Thursday and Friday

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
March 28, 2024
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Trends to Consider

Good morning and welcome to the Sweet 16, college hoops fans! If your bracket has been busted more times than you can count, rest assured that you’re in good company.

Even with all the red ink on your bracket, you can still rake in some nice profits by betting on the remaining NCAA Tournament games. To help with that, here are a few Sweet 16 betting trends to consider.

(PSA: I never recommend blindly following trends; research each game and see if the overall matchup is favorable enough to warrant a full unit play.)

Sweet 16 Favorites of 8+ Points are 26-8 to the UNDER Last 34

The only game on the Sweet 16 board that meets this criteria is San Diego State vs. UConn, which has a game total of 136 (-108 at DraftKings). As we break down the matchup, you’ll see why we’re so high on this game staying under this price.

Both the Huskies and the Aztecs play phenomenal defense. UConn ranks 5th in defensive efficiency and 8th in points allowed. San Diego State isn’t too far behind, as they’re 27th in defensive efficiency and 33rd in points allowed. This points to an Under!

Another aspect to look at is the pace of play. Neither team runs at an overly rapid speed, as San Diego State ranks 181st in field goal attempts per game and UConn ranks 147th. So, we have two good defenses and two teams that run at a moderate, but not fast, pace. Sure looks like a good spot for the Under.

I know it’s hard betting on an Under, especially when both teams have dynamic scoring threats in Jaedon LeDee and Tristen Newton. That being said, I think that UConn big man Donovan Clingan can at least limit LeDee’s attempts near the basket. Newton is a stud for the Huskies, but SD State will have Lamont Butler, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, guarding him.

Double Digit Seeds are 15-7 ATS as Underdogs in the Sweet 16

The only team that fits this trend is NC State, as the dream season just keeps on churning for this Wolfpack squad. DJ Horne looks like he’s finally healthy, which makes this potent offense even more dangerous. Let’s look at why we’re so high on NC State +6.5 (-108 at FanDuel).

While plenty of teams in the Sweet 16 have more talent, no team has been hotter than NC State. The Wolfpack have won 7 in a row and they have the chops to keep this game close against Marquette. The Golden Eagles have a pretty good offense, but their defense ranks just 132nd in efficiency, which means that the Pack should be able to hang tough in this spot.

NC State is a respectable 10-6 ATS as an underdog this season. They’re also 5-2 ATS against ranked opponents, which proves that they can play good teams close. This may be the end of the line for Kevin Keatts’s squad, but I think they have a great chance of covering this number.

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