We hit a snag in our prop plays last week after a great run during October. An 0-3 result in the Bills-Bengals low-scoring matchup was not the place to have three player total overs on your bet slip, as Josh Allen, Joe Mixon, and Evan McPherson all finished under their respective numbers. Our record in the last five weeks is still a profitable 9-5, but we are eager to put up a winning week while remaining within the confines of our existing system in Week 10.
From a matchup of possible AFC Champions in Week 9, the SNF spotlight will shine upon two teams in disarray this season. The Jets have won three of four entering this primetime game despite some struggles, including a road win in Denver and a home victory against the Eagles. The Zach Wilson roller coaster has worked at times and crashed down to earth at others, and we’re curious which version we’ll see this week.
The Raiders welcome New York to Allegiant Stadium about three months before Super Bowl LVIII will be played on the same field. They beat the Giants soundly last week with Antonio Pierce serving as interim head coach for the first time. Bookmakers aren’t sure what to do with this line, and each team can be found as a one-point favorite or underdog, depending on where you look.
The Jets and Raiders rank in the bottom six in scoring offense and the total has been adjusted to the lowest of the week. The number is 36 at most outs, give or take a half-point.
We’ve looked ahead to the player props available and present our best bet card for Week 10’s Sunday Night Football.
Breece Hall OVER 86.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Hall has battled through the highs and lows of the Jets’ season and remained a constant option for Wilson to defer to when needed. He has 62 rushes and 21 targets over his last four games, converting those opportunities into 440 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns.
Even when removing the 194-yard performance against Denver, Hall is averaging over 80 total yards per week in that stretch. The Raiders allow 4.5 yards per carry and have given up ten rushing scores on defense this season.
Both numbers are 25th or worse among all teams, and their run defense overall ranks 31st in the league. Hall should be able to establish a solid foundation on the ground, and if we throw in another 4-5 targets, this total is well within range.
Michael Mayer OVER Receiving Yards
The rookie tight end has slowly emerged as the top option at the position for the Raiders. He has as many targets and more catches than Hunter Renfrow and is recently seeing the field significantly more than the first month of the season.
Mayer has played 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in three of four games entering this week, and his snap rate is closer to 90% in the last two weeks against Detroit and the New York Giants.
The Jets have blanketed opposing receivers this season thanks to a top-five secondary but are close to the bottom ten when looking at fantasy points allowed to tight ends in 2023. We like Mayer’s trajectory and the fact that the team’s top pass catchers will have their hands full.
Greg Zuerlein OVER 1.5 Field Goals
The now 35-year-old ‘Legatron’ is still as lethal as ever. He’s tied for third in the NFL in field goals made with 19 and is one of six kickers to attempt at least 18 field goals with one or fewer misses this season.
Zuerlein has connected on 13 straight attempts in his last four games despite missing some time for an injury and gets to play in the dome environment of Allegiant Stadium this Sunday night.
We expect him to attempt and convert at least two field goals again this week.
