No immediate betting trends stand out on the surface of Thursday Night Football matchups this season, with favorites covering the spread three times in six tries compared to two losses and a push.
In comparison, the total has split between over and under three times each. Over the last four weeks, favorites are 3-1 ATS, including the Chiefs razor-thin cover a week ago against fellow AFC West rival Denver.
Week 7 brings the first inter-conference meeting on TNF since Week 1 when Detroit upset Kansas City on opening night. The Saints welcome the Jags to the Superdome as three-point favorites at home after a four-point swing since the line debuted at Jags -1. Similarly, for the total, the number has moved from 42.5 down to 39, with a couple of days to go until the teams hit the field.
Jacksonville enters Week 7 on a three-game winning streak following a 2-0 stint in London that included wins over Atlanta and Buffalo and an inefficient but convincing victory against Indy at home.
New Orleans is playing in their third home game of the season, where they’ve previously beaten Tennessee and fallen to Tampa Bay earlier in 2023.
The main variable heading into this matchup is the health of Trevor Lawrence. The Jags’ QB left the game in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over the Colts and did not practice Monday due to a knee sprain. With the short week to rest and recover, it’s increasingly likely that C.J. Beathard could start under center for Jacksonville.
With that in mind, we’ve prepared a prop card based on all available information ahead of TNF Week 7 and present our best bets next.
Derek Carr UNDER 1.5 Passing TDs (-150 @ DraftKings)
Since getting dominated at home by the Texans in Week 3, the Jags' defense has continued to get better. Quarterbacks have a 4:6 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions during that three-game sample.
If we remove Josh Allen’s attempt at fourth-quarter heroics in Week 5 when the Jags were up multiple scores, they’ve held passers to just under six yards per attempt on 115 throws.
Carr, who was limited at Monday's practice, has more games with zero TD passes than two or more in 2023. We don’t expect him to find that success against an improving Jags defense.
Travis Etienne UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110 @ Bet365)
Etienne, the NFL’s leader in rushing attempts this season with 113, has been fed a league-high 64 carries over his last three games. He’s turned those into 246 yards (3.8 ypc) and four touchdowns and faces another formidable opponent in New Orleans this week.
He broke out for 155 yards on 26 carries against a Bills’ defense that ranks 31st in opponent’s rushing average, and aside from that, he managed 110 yards on 38 carries (2.9 ypc) against Atlanta and Indy.
New Orleans should present a similar challenge as the latter two, and with Lawrence either hindered or out, the Saints can key in on stopping the run.
Brandon McManus OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made
The Jaguars’ kicker has gotten plenty of opportunities to contribute to his new team’s success, attempting 14 field goals in six games and connecting on 12.
He’s tried three field goals in four of his last five games and will likely be called upon when Jacksonville stalls against a top-ten scoring defense.
We expect him to connect on two or more kicks on TNF. Let's roll with the Over, folks!
