The last time we handicapped prop plays for Sunday Night Football was Week 4’s contest between the Chiefs and Jets. With Kansas City favored by 8.5, it was expected to be an easy road trip for the reigning champs that turned out to be anything but.
Harrison Butker’s third field goal of the day represented the only points in the fourth quarter and gave KC their hard-fought road win anyway. For our prop plays, Butker’s over cashed with room to spare, as did Zach Wilson’s for passing yards, while CEH was contained to 12 yards rushing to give us a 3-0 evening.
Week 6 brings another matchup that, on paper, could be tough to watch for one of the fan bases. The New York Giants are second-to-last in scoring offense this season and average fewer than four points per game during first halves in 2023.
They scored 31 points in the second half of a Week 2 comeback win in Arizona and 31 points combined in the other 18 quarters of football they’ve played this season. The Brian Daboll era started in promising fashion a year ago but could flame out quickly if the remainder of the season looks like the first five games.
The Bills are a disappointing 3-2 following an unsuccessful international trip to Wembley Stadium, where they lost to the Jags. Buffalo has averaged 41 points in their three victories but stumbled to 18 points per game in losses to the Jets and Jaguars.
They’re favored by 14 points at home in the team’s first meeting with the Giants since 2019 when a second-year Josh Allen threw and ran for a score during a 24-21 Bills win. We look to stack another winning effort on top of Week 4’s performance and present our prop card for SNF below.
James Cook OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Cook has out-carried Damien Harris 61-22 in five games this season and seen his most work during Buffalo’s blowouts. Three of the four games he’s attempted 12+ carries have come in Bills wins.
The former Georgia Bulldog has rushed 17 times and 15 times against Las Vegas and Washington, respectively. The Giants’ defense is 30th against the run and 29th in opponent rushing average.
Cook should be prepared for another dose of 12 carries or more if Buffalo is in the territory of covering the spread Sunday night. The second-year player out of Georgia has averaged 5.3 yards per rush in 21 games as a pro.
Leonard Floyd OVER 0.5 Sacks
Buffalo has terrorized opposing QBs this season and leads the NFL in sacks and pressure rate. The Giants have given up sacks on more than 15% of Jones’ dropbacks.
The G-Men are not prepared for a front that can generate pressure with four, as evidenced by their poor performances against Dallas and Seattle.
Floyd has three games this season with at least 1.5 sacks and will make life difficult for Jones. We expect him to bring down the Giants’ QB at least once.
Graham Gano OVER 1.5 Field Goals (+154)
The Giants have scored five offensive touchdowns in five games, while Gano has attempted 10 field goals and made seven.
New York has shown that they’ll continue to kick even when down by wide margins, like last week against Miami, and Buffalo’s defense is top ten at preventing touchdowns when backed into their own red zone.
Gano has been at least tied for the team’s leading point-scorer in three of the four games in which they’ve not been shut out, and we think he’ll get at least two chances to put kicks through the uprights on SNF.
