Through three weeks, we’ve hit on exactly 50% of our NFL TD prop bets, but readers of this author know that we’re taking players with underdog odds. That means through three weeks, we’ve made 47% profit off those bets.
Bettors who made $100 in wagers using these NFL picks have payouts of $147 off those wagers, a tidy profit for NFL wagers. Who will add their name to this list of underdog odds this week?
Let’s go over four more “four sure” anytime TD prop bets for NFL Week 6 that can add to our profits. Taking three underdogs this week gives us a chance to parlay all four picks for +3514 odds, meaning a $50 bet would payout $1,807.18
Once Cam Akers was traded to the Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles made RB Kyren Williams their clear-cut starter. Since the start of the 2023 NFL season, Williams has amassed 298 yards rushing and five TDs while catching 13 passes for 105 yards and another score.
In a pass-oriented offense, Williams receives a decent share of the Rams’ workload. His opponent this weekend is Arizona, one of the worst teams in the NFL against RBs.
The NFC West division rival yields 1.60 TDs per game to the backfield position. In five contests, the Cardinals have surrendered eight TDs to the position and none in their last contest. That bodes well for Kyren Williams to find paydirt Sunday at home.
Second year QB Desmond Ridder has found a rhythm as of late, connecting on 65% of his passes for 1,073 yards and four TDs.
While a pair of TEs – Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts – have commanded the majority of the passing yards, WR Drake London has quietly led his group of receivers in targets (31), yards (204), and TDs (2) this year.
No team has surrendered more TDs to WRs than the Washington Commanders, this week’s opponent for London and the Falcons. After holding the Cardinals without a TD in their season-opening win, Washington has allowed nine TDs over the next four games. Expect London to score his third TD this weekend against the Commanders.
Having a running game and multiple weapons at WR, it’s hard to say that San Francisco TE George Kittle got off to a slow start. Teammate Christian McCaffrey is among the league leaders with 510 yards rushing and eight TDs while WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have over 760 combined yards receiving and rushing this year.
To date, Kittle has 215 yards receiving on 17 catches and ranks in the middle of the NFL for his position in multiple categories. Kittle made up for his slow start last week against the Dallas Cowboys. In that game, the All-Pro TE caught three of his four targets for 67 yards and three TDs, giving him his first scores of the season.
Although this week’s opponent – the Cleveland Browns – currently ranks near the top 10 in terms of yards allowed to TEs, that statistic is deceiving. Last week, Baltimore and All-Pro TE Mark Andrews invaded Cleveland and left with five catches for 80 yards and two TDs. Expect Kittle and the 49ers to have similar success this week.
Speaking of TEs, Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert has also made up for a slow start. Against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5, the Eagles found Goedert on eight of nine targets for 117 yards and a score.
For the season, Goedert ranks in the top 10 TEs for yards catches (21) and targets (28) while adding 205 yards and last week’s score to that total. This week’s opponent is what makes Goedert a lock to score a TD.
The New York Jets defense has surrendered 1.0 TDs per contest to TEs this season, the worst average in the league versus the position. Goedert will be the next TE to add to the Jets’ woes in Philadelphia’s high-powered offense.