While there have been plenty of duds in NFL primetime this season, this Super Bowl LVII rematch between the Eagles and the Chiefs won't be one of them. Both teams are coming off a bye and will be raring to go for this massive matchup. Will Philly get some sweet revenge on Monday Night Football?
Though that is definitely possible, it's tough to ever bet against Andy Reid coming off a bye. While I'm passing on the side, I did find 3 player prop bets that I love for Eagles at Chiefs. Good luck with all of your Monday Night Football bets.
DeVonta Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions (-135) (DraftKings)
Believe it or not, there are actually times where I go against all of the math in player prop betting. This is one of those times. "Smitty" has a median receptions number of just 4 this season and he's only gone over this current total in 4 of 9 games.
So, why are we bucking the trend and playing the Over? For one, Dallas Goedert is listed as doubtful for this game because of a forearm injury. The big tight end is averaging almost 6 targets per game in 2023. I expect some of those extra targets to go to Smith.
Sure, the former Alabama star may be off to kind of a slow start this season, but keep in mind that he grabbed 5 or more receptions in 13 of 17 games last year. Also, Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo loves to try to take a team's No. 1 wideout away by double teams, jamming on the line, etc. If that happens, that means AJ Brown will get less targets and Smith will get a few more than usual.
D'Andre Swift OVER 13.5 Rush Attempts (-105) (BetMGM)
I get that Philly is a slight underdog in this contest, but why in the world is this number so low on Swift? The former Georgia standout has a median rushing attempts number of 16 this season. He's gotten at least 14 carries in 7 of the Eagles 9 games in 2023.
Though the Eagles may be playing from behind at times, I don't expect them to ever abandon the running game. Philadelphia has the best O-line in the NFL by a long shot, and I think they'll get plenty of push against the Kansas City front. The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per rush, which is 27th in the league. KC also ranks just 25th in rushing success rate allowed.
Look for the Eagles to give Swift plenty of carries in this one. Philly runs the ball 47% of the time, which ranks 5th in the NFL. This should be an easy Over!
Jalen Hurts UNDER 1.5 Passing TDs (-150) (DraftKings)
I don't think Hurts throws more than 1 touchdown in this matchup against the Chiefs. Here's why. Kansas City's secondary has been elite all season long.
The Chiefs D ranks 3rd in yards per pass allowed and 5th in opponent TDs allowed per game (1.8). Kansas City also does a fantastic job of pressuring the QB, as they rank 3rd in sack rate (9.66%). Because of this, I think Philly will lean more on their running game instead of chucking the ball deep.
For the season, Hurts has stayed under this number of passing TDs in 5 of his 9 ball games. His median number of TD passes is also just 1. And we all know that Philly will go to the ever so lovable "Brotherly Shove" when they're down near the goal line. That'll limit Hurts's chances of throwing more than 1 TD in this one.
