The first packed weekend of college football in 2023 is behind us, and most of the ranked teams on the board handled their business. The latest AP poll welcomed Florida State into the top four after a convincing defeat of LSU and offered places to Duke (21) and Colorado (22) after upsets of favored, ranked teams.
This week’s schedule includes another massive non-conference game with CFP stakes between 11th-ranked Texas and #3 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are 7-point favorites at home after beating up on Middle Tennessee last week. Kickoff happens at 7 pm ET on ESPN in the Longhorns' bid to challenge Nick Saban and the Tide for early-season momentum.
While we’re avoiding that matchup for our prop card this week, we feel good about the board and matchups we’ve wagered on in our best bets. Check out this week’s college props below.
Jeff Sims (Nebraska) OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
During their loss last week, TCU rushed for 262 yards and 7.1 yards per carry on Colorado’s new-look defense in what could be used as a framework for Matt Rhule to try and exploit.
Sims had as many pass attempts as he did carries in a problematic opener for Nebraska and could be forced to lead the team in both facets again. If the Buffaloes' offense racks up yards and points like last Saturday, it will reduce the number of designed run plays, and Sims will be the focal point if the pocket breaks down on passing plays.
Nebraska opened their season on the road against Minnesota, the 15th-best pass defense and 16th-ranked rush defense in the NCAA last season, and now travel to Boulder against a team getting massive amounts of hype. Even TCU’s Chandler Morris, not known for his legs, ran for 30 yards and a TD on five carries last week.
The Buffs gained 565 yards on offense against TCU but gave up 541, and we project Sims to scamper around for a high yardage total again in this matchup.
Joey Aguilar (App State) OVER 190.5 Passing Yards
Aguilar was 11-of-13 for 174 yards and four scores in relief of starting QB Ryan Burger after the Mountaineers were down 10-7 in the second quarter. The Gardner-Webb matchup should have been a glorified practice for App State, but instead, they needed Aguilar to change the momentum, which he quickly accomplished.
The Mountaineers outscored the Runnin’ Bulldogs 38-17 with Aguilar at quarterback, gaining 271 of their 394 total yards on 30 plays, including a one-play drive that resulted in a passing touchdown as soon as he entered the game.
UNC gave up 353 yards through the air to Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks in Week 1 during their inter-conference matchup en route to victory. The Tar Heels pulled away in the second half, as they’re expected to do here, but we're predicting Aguilar to take advantage of a pass defense that ranked 116th in the FBS last season.
Cameron Ward (Washington State) OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Ward filled up the state sheet for the Cougars in their Week 1 win at Colorado State, launching 49 pass attempts, accumulating 451 yards on 75.5% completions, and tossing three touchdowns as WSU hit the 50-point mark to open their season. The Incarnate Word transfer had 23 touchdowns to nine interceptions during his first season in the Power Five and will be on home turf when Wisconsin comes to town on Saturday.
The Badgers didn’t cover the number against Buffalo last weekend to start their season. They struggled to implement transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai into the offense but, in vintage fashion, rushed for 314 yards and four scores on 40 carries.
Buffalo quarterback Cole Snyder threw a pair of touchdown passes despite a tough matchup for the team’s offense, and with Ward getting to face Wisco at home, we expect him to match those three touchdowns from Week 1.
