After a disappointing 1-2 evening, we're ready to get back on track with our college basketball player props. Russel Tchewa of Georgia busted our Under on his rebounding total quite early against Ole Miss. Our bad beat of the evening was on Marcus Domask of Illinois, who got a 3-point play with 44 seconds left against Purdue to burn our Under ticket on his points total.
Thankfully, Tyson Degenhart kept us from suffering the golden sombrero. The Boise State product only finished with 15 points to easily cash our Under 19.5 bet. As rough as last night was, we're still 10-3 over our last 13 selections. Check out what's on tap for Wednesday, March 6.
Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) Under 21.5 Points (-115) (DraftKings)
Here we go again taking one of the top scorers in the country to stay Under their point total. What in the world are we thinking? It's during times like this that we have to simply trust the math and the process. Knecht is one heck of a ball player, but his median this season is 3.5 points less than this posted price.
Remember how we mentioned yesterday that oddsmakers will usually inflate a prop line because of one stellar performance. That seems to be what is happening in this case, as Knecht did light up South Carolina for 31 points back in late January. That being said, the 6'6" guard has stayed under this point total in 16 of 29 games this year.
This won't be an easy matchup for the Vols tonight in Columbia. South Carolina is a scrappy defensive team that ranks 18th in points allowed and 32nd in defensive efficiency. Look for the Gamecocks to find a way to hold Knecht to 21 or less this evening. Take the Under!
Tristen Newton (UConn) Under 7.5 Rebounds (+115) (Bet365)
Newton is a taller guard at 6"5", so he has the ability to grab rebounds in spurts, especially on the offensive end when the Huskies jack up three-pointers. Even still, Newton's median rebounding number is just 7 this season, so the plus money price is too good to pass up.
The senior from El Paso, Texas is averaging 7.1 rebounds per contest, but he's stayed under in this line in 17 of his 29 ball games. Newton also hasn't crashed the boards nearly as hard on the road this season. The Under is 9-4 in Newton's 13 road/neutral court games.
Marquette doesn't rebound very well, so that's a definite concern in this spot. Newton was able to grab 8 rebounds against the Golden Eagles back on February 17. However, that was a home game, and at this plus money price, we'll take our chances with another Under.
Quincy Olivari (Xavier) Under 18.5 Points (-115) (DraftKings)
Olivari knows how to handle the rock and he's got a pretty good jump shot. He's one of the top scorers for Xavier, but this prop line is at least a full point too high. The 6'3" senior has a median point total of just 17 this season, which gives us a solid implied edge of 8.1%.
The Atlanta native has scored 18 points or fewer in 17 of his 29 outings during the '23-24 campaign. Olivari has also stayed Under this total in 2 of his last 3 contests. Butler doesn't play elite defense, but we think they'll do just enough to hold Olivari under this line tonight. The Bulldogs were able to hold Olivari to just 15 points back on January 16.
The main reason we like this play though, is because Xavier is playing on the road. Some players just don't shoot as well on the highway and Olivari definitely falls into that category. He's stayed under in 10 of 12 road/neutral court games this year.
