If you tailed our picks from Thursday Night Football last week, you shared our disappointment. We went 1-3 in our picks after two hooks from Travis Etienne and Michael Thomas. While this wasn’t necessarily the result we sought after, we are on to a new week. Even the best of us has poor reads; sometimes, it doesn’t work out in our favor.
In this week’s iteration of Thursday Night Football, we are treated to a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills are coming off a devastating loss against the New England Patriots, and the Buccaneers are coming off a similar loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
Both teams are geared up and ready to get their teams started on a new winning streak. The Bills are 7.5-point favorites over the Bucs, with the over/under currently set at 42.5. Oddsmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game, believing the Bills will run away with this one.
Our analysis of player props is mostly geared toward this projection, which is why we have more Bills than Bucs in our predictions. Without further fanfare, let’s get into our top-three player props from this contest, which can all be found on Underdog.
For the majority of his time with the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen has been a dominant rusher. He has been the team’s primary rusher for the past few seasons, especially at the goal line.
While Allen hasn’t necessarily taken any steps back, James Cook has taken massive strides as the team’s leading back. He has rushed for at least 56 yards in four games this season, including two of his last three contests.
Cook is coming into his own as a rusher on this team and will look to yield big results in primetime against the Bucs. If the Bills do get out to a 7, even 14-point lead early in this contest, look for the team to place a greater reliance on Cook, leading him to smash this over.
We want to start by telling you to run, not walk to Underdog to take advantage of a massive deal for Allen. They are currently offering his over/under at .5 yards for a limited time, an opportunity for a free parlay piece.
However, if you’re looking for a traditional prop, we’ve got you covered. Because of Cook’s projected rushing totals, we believe Allen will soar under 264.5 passing yards.
The Bills will likely be in a positive game script throughout this one, giving Allen fewer passing opportunities. We projected this line to be closer to 240 yards, which is why we’re taking the under on Allen’s line in this spot.
Based on everything we have already mentioned, it seems like a no-brainer to take the over on Baker Mayfield’s passing yards. The Bucs will likely find themselves down early, leaving Mayfield no choice but to pass frequently in this game.
He has achieved more than 229 yards in three of his six starts this season, which have typically come in games that the Buccaneers are behind.
Look for a similar result in this one, with Mayfield finishing the game with close to 250 yards.