This week’s iteration of Thursday Night Football could get ugly in a hurry. The 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs host the 1-4 Denver Broncos. Even though this is a divisional matchup, the Broncos haven’t exactly inspired much confidence this season. They haven’t beaten a team over .500 on the year, as their only win has come over the lowly Chicago Bears.
This doesn’t bode well for them heading into this game against the reigning Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs are currently 10.5 favorites, meaning that Las Vegas doesn’t exactly believe the Broncos have a chance in this one.
If the Chiefs get out to an early lead, they could go with a more conservative approach in the second half, likely running the ball more than passing. Our player props reflect that idealogy, which can all be found on Underdog. Let’s get after it, sweeping the board on another TNF game!
Given the fact that we’re expecting the Broncos to be trailing for the majority of this matchup, they’ll likely find themselves in a negative game script. A negative game script indicates that they’ll be passing a lot, taking several deep shots down the field. This is why we’re taking the over on Mr. Deep Shot, Marvin Mims Jr.
Mims has been a great deep threat for Russell Wilson this season, racking up at least 17 yards in three of his past four games. In those games, Mims has receptions of 48, 38, and 60 yards.
He is not only a speedster with game-breaking abilities, but he has proven to be a reliable target for Wilson. Look for Mims to break off another long reception in this one, smashing his over of 16.5 receiving yards.
We said that we think the Chiefs will run a lot in this game. Enter their workhorse back, Isaiah Pacheco. Pacheco has been an excellent option in the Chiefs’ run game, proving himself to be a reliable player.
His ability to rush hard on every down has given him the bulk of their running back carries. Clyde Edwards-Heliare hasn’t been the player the Chiefs expected, and as a result, Pacheco has delivered time and time again.
Pacheco rushed 16 times in the Chiefs’ Week 5 win against the Minnesota Vikings, and 20 times against the New York Jets in Week 4. This is a sign that the Chiefs are continuing to utilize him in a big way, a trend we expect to continue this week.
Rashee Rice struggled in the Chiefs’ first few games of the year. Many believed that his early drops would lead to a reduction in playing time, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid demonstrate that they want to see what he can do.
Rice was targeted five times in Week 5, turning those targets into four catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes trusted him late in the game, a good sign for Rice moving forward.
The Chiefs don’t have many great receivers after Travis Kelce, but Rice’s role might be on the up and up. We like him to score a touchdown for a second-straight week, furthering his confidence. Plus, Underdog has juiced this, giving bettors 1.75x their money if this hits.