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Broncos at Bills: Our Favorite Player Props for MNF

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
November 13, 2023
Broncos at Bills Our Favorite Player Props for MNF

Week 10 of the NFL regular season wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills. Denver shook off a slow start to 2023 by beating the Packers and the Chiefs before their bye week last week. Buffalo has been on a wild roller coaster so far that's left them with a disappointing 5-4 record.

Is this a good "Get Right" spot for the Bills or will Russell Wilson and the Broncos build on their modest 2 game winning streak? While I don't have an opinion on the side, I do plan to use the Bills in a 6-point Wong teaser in some capacity. However, let's dive into my favorite player props for this game right now.

Stefon Diggs OVER 6.5 Receptions (-130) (DraftKings)

I'm not going to lie. I thought this line was a mistake when it first came out. The Bills may be having an average season to this point, but Diggs is still playing like the absolute beast that he is. He's gone over this receptions total in 6 of his 9 ball games in 2023.

Y'all know I love talking about the median when it comes to player props, so I'll mention it here as well. Diggs's median receptions number is 8 this season, which is why I thought the books would line this prop at 7.5 instead of 6.5. I know that Pat Surtain is one of the best corners in the league, but he normally plays the right corner spot while Diggs usually lines up on the left side of the formation for Buffalo.

Regardless of where Surtain lines up, I look for Ken Dorsey to continue to give Diggs a high number of targets. Diggs has gotten at least 11 targets in 6 of 9 outings this season. This sure looks like an easy Over (fingers crossed).

Khalil Shakir OVER 3.5 Receptions (+130) (BetMGM)

You'll be shocked to learn that I threw the median out the window when playing this prop with Shakir. What? Mikey Nobs is disregarding the median! Holy cow, it can't be!

Sometimes you have to put more stock in a player's current form than his season-long statistical profile. That's what I'm doing with Shakir in this spot. He's gotten snap counts of 71% and 65% over the last 2 games, respectively.

It also doesn't hurt that Shakir has gone over this total in 3 straight contests. He hauled in 4 catches against the Patriots, 6 against the Bucs, and 4 last week against the Bengals. I think Shakir will fare just fine against a Denver secondary that ranks dead last in opponent completion percentage (73.58%).

Courtland Sutton OVER 3.5 Receptions (-115) (Caesars)

As much as I hate giving out 3 straight Overs, it worked like a charm yesterday as we went 2-1. This price looks way too cheap on Sutton, who usually gets around 6 targets per game from Russell Wilson. Sutton's median number of receptions is 4 this season and he's gone over this total in 5 of his 8 games.

The matchup should work out well for Mr. Sutton as well. Buffalo is banged up in the secondary, and safety Micah Hyde and corner Christian Benford have been ruled out of this game. The Bills also rank just 26th in the league in opponent completion percentage (68.23%).

With Denver being a 7-point underdog in this matchup, the game script should favor a heavy dosage of passing the ball. That should help our case for the Over in this spot with Sutton. He leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TD receptions.

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