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Bills at Dolphins: Best Player Props for SNF

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
January 4, 2024
Bills at Dolphins Best Player Props for SNF

A season of HBO cameras and yards after the catch has put the Dolphins on the precipice of their first AFC East title since 2008. Following the Patriots’ reign for most of the 21st century and the Bills’ resurgence for the last three seasons, that would be a notable achievement. Buffalo, though, will have their say in that outcome.

The Dolphins and Bills will play in Miami this Sunday night for the division title and a minimum of one home playoff game. Miami has clinched at least the sixth seed and would lock up the #2 spot in the AFC with a victory.

As for Buffalo, they could find themselves as the second seed in the conference as well but might also be playing for their playoff lives depending on the outcomes of games in Baltimore, Nashville, and Indianapolis, two of which will be final on Saturday night. Given this contest is the final game of the regular season, the Bills will have the benefit of knowing exactly what’s at stake.

Buffalo humbled Miami during their Week 4 meeting, scoring 48 points to the Dolphins 20. The numbers speak to a more evenly matched pair of teams based on plays, yards, and time of possession, but Miami was 0-for-3 on fourth downs, got sacked twice as much, committed twice as many penalties, and committed the only two turnovers of the game.

In this rematch, the Bills are favored by three points away from home on the heels of four straight wins. We’ve come prepared with our final regular season edition of Sunday Night Football props and handicap our plays just ahead. These numbers are courtesy of our friends at the Underdog Fantasy app, where new users get up to $100 matched on their first deposit in bonus funds.

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 0.5 Interceptions

  • Tagovailoa is coming off his second game with multiple picks this season and broke a streak of four straight contests without an interception in Miami’s loss to Baltimore.
  • When Buffalo and Miami played in October, the QB attempted 35 passes and was picked off on a drive early in the second half that swung momentum entirely in the Bills’ favor.
  • In 12 games where Tua has attempted 30+ passes this season, he threw at least one interception in nine. All 12 of his turnovers through the air have occurred in these matchups where more passing attempts were required.

Tyreek Hill UNDER 97.5 Receiving Yards

  • 158 targets and 112 catches appear to have taken their toll on Hill as this season’s worn on.
  • Despite still seeing a prolific target share, Hill has managed to haul in just 15 of 26 looks over the last two weeks. That 57.6% mark is well below his 70.8% performance for the length of the season.
  • In his earlier matchup with Buffalo, Hill put up his lowest totals of the season in targets and catches, snagging three of five looks for only 58 yards.
  • Hill is once again listed on the injury report this week. We expect mounting pain and plenty of attention from the Bills’ defense will render Hill less effective and lead us to a win on this prop.

Tyler Bass OVER 2.5 XP Made

  • Buffalo put up six touchdowns on Miami the last time they played. The mounting injuries to the Dolphins’ core defensive players make us even more confident in the Bills’ ability to put up at least three to four TDs.
  • Bass has a lifetime mark of 97.6% when attempting extra points and has made 46 of 47 this season.
  • Rain is in the forecast for Miami on Sunday, but it will likely be out of the area before this game kicks off.
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