Our 2023 NFL season has been a bit of a roller coaster ride! After a sizzling start with player props, we've come back to earth and currently sit at 28-26 on the season.
We cashed with Joe Mixon's rushing yardage Under last Sunday but endured a couple of tough beats at the hands of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. Henry breaking off a 63-yard run against the Ravens was particularly frustrating.
Oh well, it's a marathon not a sprint and we're ready to rock for Week 7. Our best player prop picks are below! Let's find that 3-0 Sunday that we've been missing!
Rachaad White UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
We cashed with Mr. White going Under on Monday Night Football several weeks back and don't mind leading off with him to start our Week 7 card. We played Under 52.5 at open and wanted to go ahead and release the play since it's ticking down at several shops.
There is a lot to like about this Under! White's median rushing number so far this season is just 39 yards. After a small adjustment downward for Atlanta's good rush defense, our projection for White is sitting at a cool 35.5 rushing yards.
Just how good is this Dirty Birds team against the run? Atlanta's defense ranks 1st in EPA per play allowed and 11th in rushing success rate allowed. The Falcons should fare quite well against a Bucs team that ranks 29th in rushing EPA and dead last (32nd) in rushing success rate. Let's play the Under!
Baker Mayfield UNDER 229.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
Welp, we might as well stay in the same game for play #2. I love playing unders when the game total is below 40, and this Atlanta at Tampa Bay game fits the bill with a line of 37. Any time a total is set that low, oddsmakers are telling us that they expect lower scoring and less yardage.
Mayfield has done an admirable job for the Bucs so far this year, but he's still stayed Under this total in 3 of 5 games. The former Heisman Trophy winner is also 12-5 to the Under in his last 17 games under center. Mayfield also ranks just 28th in expected completion percentage.
Atlanta has done surprisingly well against the pass this season. The Falcons defense has held opponents to less than 230 yards in 4 of their 6 games in 2023. With Mayfield's median being 206 and the ATL defense's median allowed being 179, we'll gladly jump on the Under!
Lamar Jackson UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
This Under caught my eye for a different reason than the other two this week. A huge "Noreaster" is supposed to be coming through on Sunday and winds at M&T Bank Stadium are supposed to exceed 20 MPH for most of the game. That should mean lots of pounding the rock for John Harbaugh and company.
Even if we take weather out of the equation, I still like the Under for Jackson in this game. Detroit is one of the most improved defensive teams in the league this season and they'll be ready to rock in this one. The Lions defense ranks a respectable 12th in success rate allowed per dropback and 9th in EPA allowed per dropback.
All of this tells me that Lamar will have a much easier time beating the Lions with his legs instead of his arm. Oh, and if it's trends you want, I've got one for ya! Jackson has stayed Under this passing yardage total in 13 of his last 18 ball games. Boom!
