We went 2-2 with our NFL player prop picks last Sunday, as Devante Parker and Juju Smith-Schuster easily stayed under their respective receiving yardages to cash 2 Under tickets for us. Unfortunately, Jaylen Warren broke a long run to bust our Under on him, and Alexander Mattison just never got on track against the Chiefs defense to lose our Over.
A tough 1-3 performance on Monday Night Football set us back to 24-20 on the season. It's time to find another hot streak! Here are the best NFL Week 6 player prop picks for Sunday. Let's ride!
Joe Mixon UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Mixon burned us earlier this season against the Titans, but we're just hard-headed enough to fade him again. The former Oklahoma standout could be in for a long day at the office against the Seahawks. Seattle leads the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.2).
Pete Carroll made it a point in the offseason to be better on the D-line and so far, he's delivered on that promise. Guys like Jarran Reed and Mario Edwards are proven run-stoppers, so Mixon may not have any large holes to run through in this one.
Want another trend that favors an Under here? Mixon has stayed under this amount of rushing yardage in 13 of his last 19 ball games. It also doesn't hurt that the Seahawks defense is 7th in rushing EPA allowed and 3rd in rushing success rate allowed.
For the season, Mixon's median is 65, which is right at this number. However, I don't think that the oddsmakers made any adjustments for the tough matchup that the Seahawks present. I made the line 53.5 for Mixon, so I'll gladly take the Under in this spot.
Derrick Henry UNDER 66.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Man, I sure hate fading King Henry, but it's the right play over in London. Surprisingly, the Titans aren't pounding the rock like they used to and it's hurting Henry's opportunities. Also, rookie Tyjae Spears has emerged as a solid third-down back for Tennessee.
Henry's median in 2023 is just 63 yards and he's stayed under this total in 3 of 5 games. The former Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama won't get a cakewalk for a matchup against this Ravens defense. Baltimore's defense ranks a respectable 6th in rushing EPA allowed and 7th in rushing success rate allowed.
The Titans offensive line has only been average to start the season. Tennessee ranks just 15th in rushing EPA and 18th in rushing success rate. Henry is only averaging 3.81 yards per carry this season, as opposed to 4.41 last season. Take a shot of liquid courage and play the Under!
Josh Jacobs UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards (Bet365)
We cashed with this same play on Monday Night and will go back for seconds against a very good New England rush defense. Yes, I know the Pats stink to high heaven, but the defense hasn't been the problem. Look for Bill Belichick to have his D even more fired up after such an embarrassing loss to the Saints last week.
Jacobs came to camp late because of a contract dispute, and he's not looked anywhere near as crisp as last season. The former Alabama star has stayed under this rushing number in all 5 of his games in 2023. He could have a hard time getting going against a Pats D that ranks 5th in rushing success rate allowed and 8th in yards per carry allowed.
As we dig further into the metrics, we see that Jacobs' median this year is only 58 rushing yards. I adjusted that down to 51.5 based on the strength of New England's rush defense. Let's make it 3 Unders in a row on Sunday! Good luck!
