Last Sunday’s lineup produced strong results from our backs and receivers but ultimately did not cash after our highest-salaried player, Saquon Barkley, was bottled up by the Patriots’ defense. Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, and Chris Olave outperformed expectations to give us a shot before our team fell just short.
For Week 13, we expect to come back with a lineup that yields a payout from FanDuel in their $1.1M NFL Sunday Million contest.
Quarterback: Sam Howell ($7,500)
Howell has posted sustained passing volume only matched by two other players in NFL history. Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady are the other quarterbacks since 1970 to have thrown 42 or more pass attempts in at least six consecutive games, and Howell joined them after going 28 of 44 for 300 yards against Dallas on Thanksgiving.
If Howell accomplishes this feat again, he’ll tie Stafford for the NFL record of seven, which the former Lion achieved between 2012-13. We can’t pass up, no pun intended, that kind of volume against a Miami defense that has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs in 2023.
Running Backs: Rachaad White ($7,500) & Jaylen Warren ($6,500)
White is among two repeat players in this week’s lineup. He’s one of ten in the league to have a streak of 11 games or more with 10+ touches this season and trails only Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Etienne in total touches.
We like White to compile a solid stat line against a Panthers’ defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Warren was the less productive player in Pittsburgh’s backfield for Week 12, and we like what that’s done to his cap number this week compared to Najee Harris.
He’s second on the Steelers in carries and receptions this season and gets a comfy matchup against a Cardinals’ team that was gashed by the Rams last Sunday.
Wide Receivers: Nico Collins ($7,600), Adam Thielen ($7,000) & Josh Downs ($6,100)
After going without a target in Week 10 against Cincy, Collins has 20 over the last two weeks and has churned out 14 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown. The Houston offense has been playing all 60 minutes in just about every game this season, and we like Collins to produce against a Broncos’ secondary that’s allowed 6.6 yards per attempt (27th in NFL) and 19 passing TDs (28th).
Thielen, like Warren, also posted a dud result in Week 12. The Panthers have now fired Frank Reich and will face a Bucs’ defense that is 30th against the pass in 2023. Bryce Young has not surpassed 200 yards since late October, but the discount applied to Thielen after a poor showing is too steep, given his volume this season.
Downs had his second game of 12+ targets during his rookie year last week, putting his name on a list with only 43 other players in recorded NFL history. He’s being forced into many contested or off-balance catches, but his role in the Indy offense affords him the chance to put up big fantasy numbers weekly. We’ll roll the dice with him again in Week 13 against Tennessee.
Tight End: Pat Freiermuth ($5,800)
Pittsburgh’s third-year tight end posted career-highs in receptions and yards against Cincinnati in Week 12 while leading the team by a good margin in both categories.
He provides a reliable presence for an offense that’s dead-last in the NFL in passing first downs and should find plenty of room against Arizona, who are tied for the fourth-most passing first downs allowed in 2023.
Flex: Alvin Kamara ($8,300)
Kamara has cooled off since a 25-point outburst against Indy in late October, averaging 16 touches and 12.6 fantasy points per game in his last three. That follows a stretch where Kamara averaged 25 touches and 18.9 points in his first five appearances and has understandably cooled his DFS cap number.
We like him to rebound against Detroit in Week 13 and score his first touchdown in the Superdome this season.
Defense: LA Rams ($3,700)
Cleveland has scored 25 points in two games with DTR as their starting QB, and PJ Walker has also struggled in his time under center.
If LA can key in on the run game without the threat of being beaten over the top, we like their chances against an offense playing with one arm tied behind its back in this matchup.
