Thanksgiving Weekend is one of the best weeks on the sports betting calendar. Because of action on Thursday and Friday, the Sunday slate will only feature 11 games. Buffalo will travel to Philly for what may be the most interesting game of the day. Two of our best player prop picks for this week will come from that battle!
Tired of leftover turkey sandwiches yet? Wake up from your tryptophan hangover and win some money! Here are our best player prop picks for NFL Week 12. Good luck with all of your bets on Sunday!
Evan Engram OVER 4.5 Receptions (-148) (FanDuel)
In case y'all haven't noticed, I've grown quite fond of reception props lately. They're much easier to predict than yardage, and even though the juice is higher, I feel like the winning percentage is as well. We're staying with that theme with this play on Evan Engram.
You may be shocked to learn that Engram has become Trevor Lawrence's favorite target. The former Ole Miss Rebel leads the team in receptions this season with 59. His median receptions number is 5.5, which is why I don't mind paying some juice for this prop at 4.5.
Engram has grabbed 5 or more receptions in 7 of his 10 games in 2023. The matchup against Houston also favors a big game from Engram. The Texans are tied with the Chargers and the Falcons for allowing the most receptions to tight ends (65). Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Engram had 7 catches against Houston back in Week 3. Take the Over to the bank!
D'Andre Swift OVER 2.5 Receptions (-105) (DraftKings)
Wow! Here's another line that differs from mine quite a bit. The Over on Swift's receptions prop was just priced at 2.5 (-160) on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs. He hauled in 3 catches, so it's a bit surprising to see this juice at -105.
For the season, Swift has gone over this total in 6 of his 10 games. His median receptions number in 2023 is exactly 3. The former Georgia Bulldog has also gone over this total in 5 of his last 7 games. There's certainly plenty to like about this Over.
Lastly, Swift has a favorable matchup going for him as well against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed running backs to grab 65 receptions this season, which is the 4th highest amount in the league behind the Jags, Chargers, and Bears. Sign us up for another Over!
Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-114) (FanDuel)
Is the Bills offense finally back to their old, more productive ways? I don't know, but they looked much better last week against a very good Jets secondary. Sometimes it takes the firing of a coordinator to wake a team up and that looks like what's happened in Buffalo.
Allen threw for 275 yards and 3 TDs in the victory, and I look for him to continue that positive momentum, even against a very good Eagles defense. As good as Philly is, they do allow 2.1 passing TDs per game, which is 31st in the league. Allen has had his ups and downs this year, but he's still gone over this total in 7 of his 11 ball games. Heck, last year he threw 2+ TDs in 11 of 16 games.
The game total is currently sitting at 48.5 points, which indicates that Buffalo should score 3 TDs. I'm betting Allen will get 2 of those with his golden right arm. At the risk of once again looking like a square, I'll recommend 3 Overs on our Week 12 Sunday card.
