It may be hard to believe, but we're already in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. It's crazy how fast the season goes after waiting all spring and summer for it to finally arrive. Our NFL player props got off to a blistering start but have struggled in recent weeks and are now sitting at 32-31 on the year.
It's been a string of bad beats. Bets like Brandon Aiyuk O65.5 receiving yards this past Monday night definitely qualifies. It's not often you beat the closing line by 10 yards and still lose!
What made that loss even more infuriating was that Aiyuk had 57 yards heading into halftime. He got just 1 target in the entire second half! Oh well, enough ranting, let's dive into our best NFL player prop bets for Week 8.
Tyjae Spears Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
Spears is a promising young rookie out of Tulane with a pretty dynamic speed burst. He's been a nice change of pace for the Titans and is giving Derrick Henry some rest at times on third down. That being said, I don't think Spears will get many carries in this game.
For the season, Spears is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and his median yardage number is 30.5. While that's 5 yards higher than this number, I made a 30% adjustment downward to my projection because of Atlanta's stingy rush defense. The Falcons defense leads the NFL in rushing EPA allowed and ranks 6th in rushing success rate allowed, which is pretty impressive.
Mike Vrabel loves to pound the rock, so this play is a little scary. However, I expect Henry to get 98% of the carries in this one and for Spears to only be a factor in the passing game on third and long. Let's play the Under!
Breece Hall Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Hall has only gone over this total in 2 of 6 games this season, but part of that is because he was on a short snap count after coming back from last year's injury. The former Iowa State star is averaging almost 6.5 yards per carry, so he definitely has the ability to fly over this somewhat low total.
Another encouraging sign is that Hall played 66% of the Jets offensive snaps in Week 6, which was his highest usage of the year. The Jets should be raring to go after enjoying a bye week last week and I expect Hall to get more than his median carries number of 11.
The main reason I like this play, though, is the Giants terrible rush defense. The G-Men's defense ranks an abysmal 29th in EPA per rush allowed. They also rank just 27th in rushing success rate allowed. Let's jump on this Over and cheer for a big game from Hall.
David Njoku Under 36 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
It's kind of weird seeing FanDuel hang a whole number up on this one instead 35.5 or even 34.5 like the rest of the market. As a matter of fact, I think this is the first time I've ever bet on a player prop without the hook on the end. Oh well, there's a first time for everything as they say.
Njoku is a serious weapon for this Browns offense, but his median is a little bit lower than this at 35. I also like that Njoku's median targets for the season is 4 and he's averaging less than 7 yards per target. This Seattle defense will also be a tough matchup for Njoku.
Speaking of that Seahawks defense, they have held opposing tight ends to 29 yards or less in 4 of 6 games in 2023. Sam Laporta gashed them for 63 yards and Tyler Higbee racked up 49 yards against Seattle, but other than that, this unit has defended the TE position pretty well. Let's bring another Under home!
