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Best Bets for College Football Week 7

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
October 12, 2023
Best Bets for College Football Week 7

Week 7 of college football is here, and the slate is loaded to the gills with lots of interesting matchups. In today's article, we'll dive into a couple of PAC 12 battles, a Big 12 showdown, and an all-time classic rivalry game.

Need help navigating the Week 7 card? We got you! Here are 4 college football best bets for Saturday, October 14. Good luck folks!

Best Bet: Notre Dame -2.5

The Trojans seem to be on a mission after falling short of making the CFB Playoff last year. At 6-0, they are ranked 10th in the country but have had close calls against Colorado and Arizona the last 2 weeks. Caleb Williams is doing everything he can to repeat as a Heisman winner.

He is averaging over 300 yards per game through the air and has thrown 22 touchdowns to just 1 interception. He has also added 6 more scores on the ground.

Marshawn Lloyd has been the back that has been pacing the run game and is averaging over 85ypg while scoring 4 times. The defense has been their issue as of late. On the season they are allowing an average of 27ppg but have allowed 41 points in back-to-back games.

The Irish were 4-0 before running into the real meat of their schedule. Losses to then #6 Ohio State and #25 Louisville bookended a win over #17 Duke. Sam Hartman has continued to be solid and is averaging nearly 245 yards per game through the air. Audric Estime is close to averaging over 100ypg on the ground.

The defense has been stout, allowing just 15.86ppg. In their latest game, a loss to Louisville, it was turnovers that did them in. The Irish turned it over a season high 5 times against the Cardinals. They will need to take care of the ball much better here if they want to defeat the Trojans.

The Irish got a week off last week after losing to Louisville and it was much needed. This gave them time to rest and refocus on one of their biggest rivals, USC. The Trojans did not have that luxury and were almost caught off guard by the inferior Arizona Wildcats.

With #16 Utah lurking for USC next week, this is a tough spot for the Trojans. The fact that the Irish are favored here against a Top 10 team in USC makes us believe that the Irish are going to pull off the upset at home here.

Key Betting Trends for USC at Notre Dame

  • USC is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • USC is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • ND is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against USC.
  • ND is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against USC.

Best Bet: North Carolina -3.5

Mario Cristobal and the rest of the Miami offensive coaching staff still have their fans shaking their heads after last week’s debacle. Up 20-17 with just 33 seconds remaining, they decided to run the ball instead of just taking a knee. Donald Chaney fumbled, and GT was able to use 2 passes to go 74 yards and the game winning touchdown.

Tyler Van Dyke struggled the entire game and finished with 3 interceptions and just 1 touchdown. As a team, they committed 5 turnovers, the last of which was the one that changed the game. That said, this Miami team still has been playing some really good football lately. They are in the Top 20 in scoring and points allowed while having a balanced offensive attack that ranks 8th in the country in total yards per game.

#12 North Carolina is 5-0 and while the offense has continued where it left off last season, averaging over 36.5ppg which ranks 30th in the country; it has been the defense that has made the difference for this team. Allowing just 19ppg, the defense has stepped up immensely from group that had been nearly non-existent over the last 4-5 years.

However, this will be their biggest offensive threat to date that they will have faced. Drake Maye has been putting up a ton of yardage but has only gotten them in the endzone 8 times through the air while being picked off 4 times. The 56.6% 3rd down conversion percentage puts this UNC team in 6th place nationally.

It is going to be difficult for the Miami offense to trust their coordinator and head coach after last week’s mess. That said, there will be little room for error against this UNC team that can put points up in a hurry.

And the UNC defense is looking better than ever. In a potential look ahead spot last week against Syracuse, UNC held them to just 7 points. We believe UNC gets the job done here against a heartbroken Miami team.

Key Betting Trends for Miami at UNC

  • Miami is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • Miami is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
  • UNC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • UNC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Miami-FL.

Best Bet: Oregon State -3.5

#18 UCLA is coming off a nice 25-17 win over visiting Washington State last week. Prior to that game, they had picked up their 1st loss of the season against then #7 Utah. Unlike a typical Chip Kelly team, this UCLA squad is defensive minded and is holding opponents to the 12th best number in the nation (12.2ppg).

The offense is not terrible by any means, Dante Moore continues to be efficient in the passing game while Carson Steele and TJ Harden have combined for an average of 139.8 yards per game on the ground. Moore did throw 2 picks last week against the Cougars and will need to be on point against these Beavers.

Oregon State lost to that same Washington State team on the road back in late September 38-35. However, they bounced back to defeat then #10 Utah 21-7. They then threw up 52 points against Cal last week in a 12-point victory.

DJ Uiagalelei has shown flashes of greatness, but it has been the run game that has carried this team. Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick combine for nearly 150 yards per game and have scored 7 of the team’s 15 rushing touchdowns.

Oregon State is a much stronger team at home than on the road. The loss on the road to Wazzu followed by the upset win at home to Utah provides insight into this theory.

Same can be said for UCLA on the road as that is where they lost their only game. In a battle of 2 strong rushing attacks, we like the Beavers and DJ to be able to make the bonus plays up in the passing game to get this win.

Key Betting Trends for UCLA at Oregon State

  • UCLA is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • UCLA is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference.
  • Oregon St is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • Oregon St is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference.

Best Bet: Oklahoma State +3.5

#23 Kansas heads to Boone Pickens Stadium this week after defeating UCF 51-22 last week. The week prior they lost to then #3 Texas on the road 40-14. As a 28-point favorite, in their other road game, the Jayhawks only squeaked by Nevada by 7.

They are averaging 36ppg which is 34th in the country. They also convert on 53.3% of their 3rd down attempts, good enough for 11th in the country. Jalon Daniels is questionable, and Jason Bean will be ready to hop in his place. Either way, they will try to use the run game that is averaging over 230 yards per game.

The Cowboys avoided a 3-game losing streak last week when they defeated Kansas State. They had lost to South Alabama and Iowa St prior to the KSU game. Their defense has been decent in holding teams under 24ppg but the offense has not been able to find a true rhythm as they are 180th in the country in scoring.

Mike Gundy has used 3 different QBs but Alan Bowman has spent the most time under center. Ollie Gordon will be looking to break the 100-yard mark for the 3rd time in a row here.

The Jayhawks have been struggling on the road this season and we do not see that changing in the tough environment that Boone Pickens can create. Combine that with either an unhealthy Daniels playing or Bean being thrusted into the starting role and we have a recipe for a home dog to win outright here.

Key Betting Trends for Kansas at Oklahoma State

  • KU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • KU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Oklahoma State.
  • OKST is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.
  • OKST is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas.
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