Happy Week 18, everybody! Can you believe the NFL regular season is about to come to a close? Luckily, we get two fabulous games on Saturday that have massive playoff implications.
Pittsburgh heads to Baltimore for a 4:30 PM EST kick with the hopes of keeping their slim postseason hopes alive. The late game (at 8:15 EST) is basically a play-in game, as the winner of Texans vs. Colts will earn a playoff berth and possibly the AFC South crown.
Ready to make some money with the Week 18 NFL slate? We're ready to bounce back strong after a rough Week 17. Check out our 5 NFL player prop bets for Saturday, January 6 right here. Good luck, folks!
Alec Pierce UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-130) (DraftKings)
I like Alec Pierce. He's a gritty player and a decent possession type of receiver. That being said, he just doesn't get many targets. The 23-year-old only gets a median target share of 3 per game.
Of those 3 targets, Pierce usually only catches 2 of them. He also only hauled in 2 receptions against the Texans back in Week 2. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has stayed under this total in 9 of his 16 ball games this season.
I'm not crazy about the Houston secondary, but Pierce plays the right wideout spot. This means he'll be going up against Steven Nelson, who is a pretty solid corner. Nelson ranks 7th in the league in interceptions (4) and 11th in pass deflections. Let's play the Under to kick things off.
Kylen Granson UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-120) (BetMGM)
Granson's a pretty solid tight end, but I see him mainly being used as a blocker in this game. The former SMU standout has only caught 29 passes this season through 14 games. He's stayed under this total in 9 of those 14 games.
Another reason to like this Under is expected target share. As you can tell from this play and the Pierce play, I expect most of Gardner Minshew's targets to go to Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. Current form is also in our favor with this prop, as Granson has stayed under this receptions number in 6 of his last 8 outings.
Dalton Schultz UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-122) (FanDuel)
I bet this at better juice (-112) at the opener but still like it at anything better than -135 or so. Schultz has been a great addition for the Texans this season, but I don't see him getting more than 4 catches in this game.
Schultz, a former star at Stanford, has a median receptions number of 3.5 this season. Sure, Indy doesn't defend the tight end very well, but we're getting a full reception over his median in this case. Hey, betting with a mathematical edge ain't always pretty! 🙂
The Colts may struggle at times against tight ends, but they do rank a solid 13th in opponent completion percentage (64.58%). They also rank an impressive 6th in sack rate, so CJ Stroud may not get much time to throw in this one. Let's ride the Under, which Schultz has hit in 11 of 14 games this season.
Diontae Johnson OVER 3.5 Receptions (-108) (FanDuel)
This number sure does look low, even with Mason Rudolph at QB for the Steelers. The Ravens have nothing to play for since they've already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That means that Baltimore could be playing a lot of backups in the secondary, so a big game from Johnson is likely.
Johnson has struggled with injuries some this year, but he's still Pittsburgh's best possession receiver. He's gone over this total in 7 of his 12 games and his median receptions number is 4. He's also gone over this total in 6 of his 8 career games against the Ravens.
George Pickens OVER 3.5 Receptions (+102) (FanDuel)
I'm sure that FanDuel is a lot smarter than me in some areas, but I'm not sure why this prop is at plus money. Pickens has played like a beast since Rudolph took the reins at QB. The former Georgia Bulldog usually gets around 6 targets per game, and he racked up 6 receptions against Baltimore back in Week 5.
Pickens can get lazy at times in the blocking game, but he's still a dynamic receiver. Mike Tomlin knows that he needs to feed Pickens the ball in order to have the best chance to win. Pickens has gone over this total in 10 of 16 games this season. Let's play another Over to close things out.
