We're back and better than ever after 3 days of rest. Our college basketball player props went 2-1 last Friday, and we're ready to kick off the NCAA Tournament in style with some picks on the First Four!
Here's a quick Friday recap: Kasean Pryor of USF and Jared Coleman-Jones of MTSU easily stayed under their respective prop points to ensure us of a winning day. Our only loser was on Joel Soriano of St. Johns, as he failed to score Over 10.5 points against UConn due to early foul trouble. Our CBB player props now sit at 48-35 on the season (57.8%).
Ready to make some cash on the First Four? Check out what we have on tap for Tuesday, March 19. Good luck, sports betting family! Enjoy the Madness of March!
Tahron Allen (Wagner) Under 13.5 Pts (-125) (BetMGM)
Allen is an adequate scorer for this Seahawks team, but his median is just 11 this season. Sure, Howard doesn't have a stellar defense, but a 2.5-point adjustment is a bit too much according to our numbers. Allen only averages around 10 field goal attempts and 2 free throw attempts per game, so he'd have to shoot the lights out to bust this Under.
The season metrics also favor the Under. Allen has scored 13 points or less in 21 of his 30 ball games during the '23-24 campaign. We also have current form on our side, as Allen has stayed under this total in 7 of his last 9. Let's start this party off with an Under!
Isaac McKneely (UVA) Under 12.5 Pts (-125) (FanDuel)
FanDuel is being a little bit generous with this juice, as all other shops have this at -140. McKneely is kind of a boom or bust type of scorer for Virginia, but a lot of the metrics favor an Under. First and foremost, McKneely has a median point total of just 10.5 this season.
McKneely, a 6'4" guard from Poca, West Virginia, has stayed under this point total in 20 of his 32 games this season. He's also scored 12 points or fewer in 5 of his last 8 outings. Colorado State doesn't have great defensive stats, but a lot of that is because they play in the Mountain West, one of the deepest conferences in the country.
McKneely can shoot pretty well when he gets hot, but that typically doesn't happen for him in road/neutral games. He's stayed Under this point total in 10 of his 16 games away from home. Take the Under!
Isaiah Stevens (Colorado St) Over 14.5 Pts (-110) (FanDuel)
Yes, I know that the Cavs have one of the scrappiest defenses in the nation, but Stevens has proven all year long that he can put up some monster numbers against tough teams. The 6-foot guard scored 23 against Nevada, 21 against Utah State, and 20 against San Diego State, Creighton, and New Mexico. That's obviously a heck of a resume!
Stevens has a point median of 18 this season, which implies 3.5 points of line value in this spot. Even though I hate playing any type of Over with a game total of only 120 or so, it's the only way to look with a guy like Stevens. The senior guard has averaged 13 field goal attempts and around 35 minutes per game this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for him tonight.
The Over is 23-11 vs. this line for Stevens this season. He's also scored 15 or more in 11 of his 17 road/neutral games. Let's hold our breath and take an Over, as much as it pains me to do so (haha).
