After a rough 0-2 evening, we're hungry to get back in the saddle with our college basketball player props. We're still 12-6 over our last 18, so there's no reason to panic. Last night was just one of those nights where the breaks just didn't go our way.
Both Maxime Raynaud and Myles Rice busted our Unders in the points and assists department, respectively. It's time to shake it off and move on! Here's what we have in store for Friday, March 8. As an added bonus, we have an early player prop that starts at 1 PM Eastern Time.
Robbie Avila (Indiana St) UNDER 20.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings)
This is an early tip so get those wagers in early, fellow sports investors! Avila is an imposing guy at 6'10" and 240 pounds, which is probably why the oddsmakers have inflated this line quite a bit. Avila's median point total is just 18 this season, so we'll gladly jump on the Under in this spot.
Indiana State faced Missouri State twice during the regular season and Avila only averaged 17 points per game in those contests. The Oak Forest, Illinois native also scored 20 points or less in 20 of his 29 games this season. Avila also stayed under this total in 11 of his 16 road/neutral-site games.
Avila is a matchup nightmare, but Missouri State isn't too bad on the defensive end of the floor. They rank 40th in defensive efficiency and 44th at defending two-point shots. There's nothing like a good midday Under to get our juices flowing.
Daron Holmes (Dayton) UNDER 22.5 Points (-125 at Bet365)
Holmes is fresh off a nice 25-point outing, so it's tough to fade him tonight against VCU. However, the yearly metrics suggest that it's the best way to play this prop. Holmes has stayed under this total in 18 of his 29 ball games during the '23-24 campaign.
The 6'10" junior from Goodyear, Arizona has a median point total of 20 this season. This gives us a fair amount of value on the Under, even at the increased juice. As good as Holmes was his last time out, he's still scored 22 or less in 2 of his last 3 games.
The matchup is pretty favorable for us as well. VCU was able to hold Holmes to just 12 points back on February 9. The Rams will put Christian Fermin, who is also 6'10", on Holmes and that should be enough to keep him Under this total.
Harlond Beverly (Wichita St) UNDER 12.5 Points (-125 at PointsBet)
I'm totally okay if you want to go with the Under 11.5 (+100) option that FanDuel is offering if you want to go that route instead. I don't mind paying the extra quarter in juice for the extra point, but to each their own. Beverly is a decent player, but he isn't Wichita State's main scoring option.
The 6'5" guard has scored 12 points or less in 19 of 29 outings this season. Beverly also hasn't been nearly as effective in games away from home, as he's stayed under this total in 12 of his 14 road/neutral-site games. Current form also favors the Under, as Beverly is 6-1 to the Under in his last 7 contests.
My only concern with this one is the Tulane defense, which has been flat-out awful this season. The Green Wave loves to push the pace, but they give up a ton of points. Nevertheless, I'll trust the numbers and ride the Under once again.
