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3 Best Bets for College Football Week 11

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
November 9, 2023
3 Best Bets for College Football Week 11

The Week 11 college football slate is jampacked from noon to midnight! Four games on the schedule will feature Top 25 teams facing off against each other. We've dug hard into all of the numbers and found 3 best bets for Saturday, November 11.

As per our usual two of our wagers will be on underdogs. The betting public loves to bet favorites, which typically leaves us with a little more meat on the bone with the dogs. Let's hope two of them will bark in a big way come Saturday.

Best Bet: Michigan -4.5

The #3 Wolverines head into Happy Valley to take on #10 Penn State. Outside of a loss to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have been perfect. Michigan has been dealing with the sign stealing scandal and could be a bit distracted heading into this contest.

While the Wolverines are 9-0, they have yet to face a ranked opponent. This will be the 1st true test for JJ McCarthy and the Michigan offense. Both teams rank in the Top 10 in scoring and Top 5 in defense.

Where Michigan holds an advantage is their ability to convert 55.6% of the time on 3rd down. They rank nearly 60 spots ahead of PSU in that category. With JJ McCarthy looking for a Heisman moment, we believe it will be Blake Corum and the Wolverines ability dominate the line of scrimmage that will be the difference in this one.

Key Betting Trends for Michigan at Penn State

  • UM is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • UM is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • PSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Michigan.
  • PSU is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played in week 11.

Best Bet: Utah + 9.5

The Utes hit the road to take on Michael Penix and the Washington Huskies. This will be the 5th ranked team the Utes will have faced this season. They have a 202 record against those ranked teams already.

For the #5 Huskies, this will be just their 3rd ranked team and they hold a 2-0 record against their previous ones. The Pac-12 title is well within sight for the Huskies and more so, a CFB Playoff berth.

To keep those hopes alive, the Huskies are going to need to be near perfect on offense against a Utah defense that is allowing only 16ppg which ranks them 15th in the country.

The game is going to be a battle between Utah’s run game and stout defense against the high-powered passing offense of the Huskies. We are going to lean on the run game and defense of Utah here as they are catching nearly double-digit points.

Key Betting Trends for Utah at Washington

  • Utah is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Utah is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Saturday.
  • Wash is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the South Division.
  • Wash is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Utah.

Best Bet: Missouri +1.5

The 7-2 Vols, who have lost to their only ranked opponent (#11 Alabama), face off with the #14 Missouri Tigers who are fresh off a loss to #2 Georgia.

Both Tennessee and Missouri are averaging around 33ppg, but Tennessee holds the edge on the defensive side as they rank 36th compared to the Tigers that rank 103rd. We believe there is a bit of recency bias in this line as the Vols are coming off a dominate 59-3 win and the Tigers are coming off a loss.

The Vols have had their struggles on the road this season and we believe that continues here in Columbia. Take the small home dog in this spot.

Key Betting Trends for Tennessee at Missouri

  • Tenn is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
  • Tenn is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games played in week 11.
  • Mizzou is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • Mizzou is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the SEC.
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