2024 MLB Rookie of the Year Betting Guide: Learn Why There's Value on Noelvi Marte

Predicting rookie success in any major professional sport can be a crapshoot. Data from past performance at the college or lower professional levels is an indication, but performing on the biggest stage requires these incoming talents to take another step in their development.

In baseball, players can gain major league experience before exhausting their rookie eligibility. A player will still be considered a rookie unless they've previously surpassed 130 at-bats or 45 active days on an MLB league roster in an individual season.

Both 2023 Rookies of the Year had 100+ ABs in the season before their full rookie campaigns, allowing them to get reps, build confidence, and prove their ability against top competition. We accounted for early experience, among other factors, when reviewing the Rookie of the Year odds in both the American and National Leagues for 2024 and lay out our findings and best bets next.

The Best Rookies of 2023

For the first time since 2017, both players to capture Rookie of the Year honors last season did so unanimously. Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson and D'Backs outfielder Corbin Carroll swept the voting in their respective league, following in the footsteps of New York's Aaron Judge and former LA Dodger Cody Bellinger seven seasons earlier.

Henderson and Carroll were the only two rookies to surpass 5.0 WAR, marking just the fourth time in the past 20 seasons that multiple rookie position players reached that mark. Henderson's 6.2 WAR has only been surpassed by five position players in that span, while Carroll's 5.4 WAR is tenth.

Two pitchers finished as distant runners-up in 2023's ROY races, Cleveland's Tanner Bibee and New York Met Kodai Senga. Both players finished with an ERA of 2.98 and won 10+ games, while Senga's 4.5 WAR was third among MLB rookies.

Key Information to Consider

We discussed the significance of prior MLB experience to the rookie success of Henderson and Carroll, and we'll use that as one indicator to predict the 2024 outcomes. 56 players saw between 50 and 130 regular-season at-bats last season after making their debut between 2022 and '23, preserving their rookie eligibility for this year but gaining valuable experience.

We have to factor in the MLB Top 100 Prospect list as well, which includes players that have already ascended to the big leagues and those expected to follow them to baseball's highest level, whether this season or in the future. The top prospects entering this season litter the odds list from top to bottom.

Finally, some sites like FanGraphs will project the statistical performance of the rookie class heading into the season. We include some of those data points in our analysis.

American League Contenders

Jackson Holliday is baseball's top prospect entering the 2024 season. He ripped through Baltimore's minor league system last summer after being selected first overall in the 2022 Draft, posting a .941 OPS with 30 doubles and 113 runs scored at four levels between Low-A and AAA. He's the favorite in the American League and could appear on a major league diamond as soon as Opening Day in a talented Orioles infield and lineup.

Evan Carter played the role of postseason hero during the Rangers' World Series chase in 2023. In 72 playoff plate appearances, the outfielder slashed .300/.417/.500 and ripped a playoff-record nine doubles in 17 games as a 21-year-old. He'll be a key contributor to the Rangers' title defense in 2024.

Speaking of Texas defending their championship this season, Wyatt Langford is expected to contribute, too. The sixth-ranked prospect in baseball slugged 10 homers and 17 doubles in 44 minor league games last season, finishing with an OPS of 1.157 in 161 at-bats. He will either begin the year in AAA or as a DH on the big-league roster, depending on Bruce Bochy's decision.

Nolan Schanuel, the Angels' first-round pick in 2023, saw action in just 22 minor league games before being called up to majors last August. He reached base in all 29 games (.402 OBP) of his limited action, and his main area of improvement is increasing that .330 SLG over 109 ABs.

Junior Caminero, MLB's fourth-ranked 2024 prospect, appeared in eight games for the Rays in the regular season and playoffs in 2023. The infielder launched 31 big flies in 117 minor league appearances last year and is the latest in a long line of top prospects within the Rays system to crack the MLB roster.

Parker Meadows posted the fourth-highest WAR among players who didn't exceed rookie limits in 2023. The Detroit center fielder, who was worth three defensive runs saved above average in just 37 games last year, is known for his defensive prowess rather than his ability at the plate (.729 minor league OPS).

Where the Tigers do expect run production from a young player is infielder Colt Keith. The 2020 fifth rounder inked a $28M contract this offseason before playing his first MLB inning and will look to translate a swing that accumulated 27 home runs and a .932 OPS in AA and AAA last year.

National League Contenders

Where the AL features prospect after prospect that has come up through the traditional system in the minors, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jung-hoo Lee, and Shota Imanaga took a different path to their National League teams.

Yamamoto and Imanaga spent 6+ seasons in Japan's top baseball league, with each pitcher selected to multiple All-Star teams. Yamamoto, the NL ROY favorite, achieved nearly everything a pitcher can during his time in Japan. His trophy case includes three straight MVPs and the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young award from the last three seasons to name a few. He signed with the Dodgers for $325M and will be their ace to start the year. Imanaga signed a four-year, $53M deal with the Cubs in early January.

Lee has played in the KBO League, Korea's highest level of baseball, since 2017. He's a five-time Gold Glove winner and won the 2022 league MVP. Lee signed with the San Francisco Giants for $113M in December and will be their everyday center fielder in '24.

Noelvi Marté, one of numerous Cincinnati Reds prospects to get their big-league call-up in 2023, was impressive in 123 plate appearances. He'll compete for playing time in a crowded infield, but a .316 batting average and .822 OPS will support his case for an everyday job.

Jackson Chourio is the #2 player on MLB's 2024 prospect list behind Holliday and is expected to start in center for the Brewers on Opening Day. He hit 22 home runs and stole 44 bases in 128 minor league games last year and will have his chance to cement a role in this young Milwaukee lineup.

Arizona's top prospect, Jordan Lawlar, saw limited playing time for the Diamondbacks during the regular season and walked and scored in his only World Series plate appearance last year. His defensive ability at shortstop is a plus, and if Lawlar can improve his hitting numbers across a larger sample, he could have a long-term spot in the big leagues.

Another prospect with a short stint in the majors last year is Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. Baseball's 16th-ranked player on the 2024 prospect list struggled in 19 plate appearances, hardly an indication of his potential but undeniably discouraging, nonetheless. Chicago is still rumored to be mulling a free-agent offer for Cody Bellinger, and his return would mean fewer opportunities for Crow-Armstrong.

Finally, college standout Paul Skenes has climbed to the third spot on the MLB prospect rankings and is poised to make his MLB debut in 2024. Skenes saw action in only five games last season in the minors, but his arsenal of off-speed pitches with an elite fastball demands major-league innings.

Best Bet for AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter +375 (Caesars)

The postseason that Carter put together secured him a middle-of-the-order place in the Texas lineup for 2024. His 1.6 WAR in 23 games translates to Mike Trout-esque numbers over an entire season.

Even if Carter only achieves half of that pace and crosses the 5.0 WAR plateau as a rookie, he'll be a top candidate for ROY. Carter is favored over Holliday on BetRivers, and we're locking in this number from Caesars.

Best Bet for NL Rookie of the Year: Noelvi Marté +1100 (FanDuel)

Marté should establish himself as the everyday third baseman in Cincinnati based on last year's performance in September and October, as long as Jeimer Candelario settles in at first. Marté batted .380 with three home runs and an OPS of .961 in his final 24 appearances during the 2023 season.

The Reds ballpark is among the friendliest in the MLB to right-handed hitters, ranking second to Coors Field according to StatCast's park factor data. As long as he maintains his role, we love Marté's value.