2023 Big 12 Preview & Season Win Total Bets

Is it football season yet? We're getting closer! How will UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, and Houston fare in their first season in the Big 12? Can anyone get by Texas, who is currently a +115 favorite to take home the conference crown?

Get ready with our 2023 Big 12 Preview, that includes a ton of Season Win Total Bets. Best of luck this year!

Oklahoma Sooners OVER 9.5 Wins

The loss of head coach Lincoln Riley and star QB Caleb Williams proved to be too much for the Sooners to overcome in their 1st season without them. Williams went on to win the Heisman while the Sooners struggled to a 6-7 record.

Dillon Gabriel did the most with his limited time in the season filling in for Williams. He finished with over 3000 yards and 25 touchdowns to go with a 154.4 QBR. They finished outside the Top 50 in redzone scoring which proved costly in their final 4 losses of the season that each came by a field goal.

While the final record was not up to the standards of the Sooners faithful last season, it should be noted that 5 of their losses were just 1 score games.

Brent Venables should be able to turn those into wins in his 2nd season as he brings back Dillon Gabriel for what seems like his 10th season and a strong 1-2 punch in the backfield with Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk back.

The transfer portal was kind to the Sooners and the defense will benefit from the new additions. We are banking on Venables and company flipping those 5 games this season and stealing the Big 12 from the Longhorns.

Texas Longhorns UNDER 9.5 Wins

It was very much an up and down season for the Longhorns, with both being extremes. After almost defeating the Crimson Tide in the 2nd game of the season, the Longhorns fell victim to the Red Raiders at Texas Tech.

Just 2 weeks later, they smoked perennial power Oklahoma 49-0, only to lose at Oklahoma State just weeks later. They finished 8-5 and lost their bowl game to Washington to cap off the mediocre season.

Coach Sarkisian will have a defense back that returns 6 starters and is likely to be near the top of the conference. Quinn Ewers was able to fend of Maalik Murphy and the golden boy himself, Arch Manning during the spring in order to hold on to the starting job at QB. Redshirt sophomore Jonathon Brooks will take over for Bijan Robinson who took his talents to the NFL.

Ewers will have arguably the top receiving corps in the country and a Big 12 title will certainly be within reach. However, the shadow cast by Arch Manning waiting in the wings could prove detrimental and keep Ewers looking over his shoulder. This is why we are on the under for the Longhorns this season.

Kansas State Wildcats OVER 8.5 Wins

A top 10 team in turnover margin in 2022 helped the KSU squad to a double-digit win season. In what seemed like a bad loss early to Tulane, ended up being a loss to a 12-win team. Their loss to TCU ended up being to a team that ended up playing for the national title.

Their only other losses were to Texas at home and to Bama in the Sugar Bowl. Chris Kleinman has already gotten the Wildcats in good footing after just 2 seasons at the helm.

Will Howard will be under center and have one of the best offensive lines in the country protecting him. He will be without all world back Deuce Vaughn but will have FSU transfer Treshaun Ward who brings a 6.6 yards per pop average with him from last season. The defense will be a bit of a question as most of the secondary from last season is no longer on campus.

Texas Tech Red Raiders OVER 7.5 Wins

Unlike Baylor, the Red Raiders had almost the exact opposite season. After starting out just 4-5, Tech rattled off 4 straight wins to finish their season. Things were capped off with a 51-48 win over Oklahoma followed by a 42-25 bowl win over Ole Miss.

The passing attack was once again king for the Red Raiders as they finished 5th in the country in attempts per game (44.5) and 16th in yards per game (287.9).

The Red Raiders will have an experienced defense returning with the strength being up front as both Tony Bradford and Jaylon Hutchings return. They will look to pressure the opposing QBs on a weekly basis.

Speaking of QB pressure, the offensive line needs to be better than last year for Tyler Shough to take the next step in this offense. He will have Jerand Bradley back as his favorite target. This Red Raider team could sneak up on a lot of teams this season.

TCU Horned Frogs UNDER 7.5 Wins

What a season it was for 1st year head coach Sonny Dykes. In what was pegged to be a bit of a rebuilding year, the Horned Frogs had one of the most improbable runs in recent college football history. After running the table in the regular season, it seemed like they could be a lame duck for a playoff team after losing the Big 12 title game to KSU.

However, they proved every doubter wrong as they defeated Michigan in the semi-finals 51-45. Unfortunately, they were completely outclassed in the national title game by Georgia who smoked them 65-7.

It is very unlikely that TCU makes another run like last season. Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller are all gone from the offense that was one of the most explosive in the country.

The defense will now be the strength as they lost just a couple of starters and bring back a secondary led by Josh Newton. Chandler Morris will have Duggan’s large shoes to fill, and we don’t believe he has the feet to do it in year one.

Oklahoma State Cowboys UNDER 6.5 Wins

After a 5-0 start to the 2022 campaign for the Cowboys, a 2-6 finish proceeded. A 48-0 loss to KSU seemed to break the back of the Cowboys and began the 5 of 6 losses to end the year.

One of the worst defenses inside the red zone last season, Oklahoma State found it difficult to continually play from behind. Spencer Sanders was mediocre at best behind center and battle injury during the season.

The QB battle between Flores, Rangel, and Bowman is ongoing and could turn into a turnstile during the season. The backfield will have Ollie Gordon and Jaden Nixon which should alleviate some of the pressure for whomever is behind center.

Mike Gundy brought in Bryan Nardo to run a defense that returns only 2 starters. Oddly enough, that could be a good thing as the defense is going to use an entirely different scheme with Nardo.

Baylor Bears UNDER 7 Wins

The Bears had a decent 1st half of the season last year as they compiled a 6-3 record. However, a 4-game losing streak put a damper on what was looking like a promising year for Baylor.

Averaging over 29ppg was a positive for the Bears but the 28.3ppg they allowed on the back end made things difficult for picking up wins in those latter games. Blake Shapen’s 18 touchdowns to 10 interceptions was not a recipe for success either.

Shapen is back and won the battle with Sawyer Robertson who transferred in from Mississippi State over the offseason. However, that does not bode well for a Bears team that completely regressed last season.

When you have 2 QBs, you likely do not have any. Richard Resse is likely to get a ton of carries to keep the pressure off Shapen but the offensive line is completely revamped with 4 new starters.

Kansas Jayhawks OVER 6 Wins

Before the nation became enamored with TCU, it seemed like Kansas was going to be the public darling after a 5-0 start to their season, which smashed their preseason win total. And these were not wins against smaller programs; West Virginia, Houston, and Duke were 3 of the victims with the 1st two coming on the road.

However, reality settled in as the Jayhawks were brought back to Earth with a 1-7 finish to the season. A defense that ranked near the bottom of the rankings allowing over 37ppg is what led to their brutal finish.

We are fading the public here as many believe Kansas could be a dark horse to make a run at the conference title game. They return 17 starters with the majority being on the offensive side that boasts a high scoring attack.

The defense will need to be the ones that step up for the public to be correct. We are banking on the defense continuing to struggle and the element of surprise will not be a tactic for the Jayhawks this season.

Central Florida Knights UNDER 6.5 Wins

UCF had a good run through most of their 2022 season as they had what could have been an 8-game win streak snapped in the middle by East Carolina. They finished 9-5 and were invited to the Military Bowl to face the Duke Blue Devils who handed them a 30-13 loss to end their season.

Both sides of the ball were solid for the Knights, but things will be difficult in their 1st season in the Big 12. Week in and week out, the Knights will be tested in their 1st season within a Power 5 conference.

The top team of the four coming into the Big 12 this season is likely to be these Knights. Coach Malzahn has John Rhys Plumlee behind center again and he has a ton of weapons at his disposal.

While his defense will be strong upfront, the back end will have a bunch of new faces. Overall, the weekly competition is going to be much stronger than what the Knights are used to and 6 wins seems to be the ceiling we see for them here.

Iowa State Cyclones OVER 5.5 Wins

The Cyclones had a season to not remember in 2022. Off the heels of losing Brock Purdy and Breece Hall to the NFL, the Cyclones had a ton of rebuilding to do. A 4-8 record was not exactly a step in the right direction but a defense that finished ranked 18th in points allowed per game may be something to build on.

Xavier Hutchinson, the team’s top receiver, is now in the NFL. That leaves Hunter Dekkers searching for a new #1 target in 2023. If he can do that, the Cyclones defense will take care of the rest.

As the top defense in the conference in terms of points allowed per game last season, they return 7 starters and could very well repeat in holding opponents to just 20ppg.

Brigham Young Cougars UNDER 5.5 Wins

A 4-game win streak to end the season saved what looked like a lost year for the Cougars. They were just 4-5 prior to that win streak with 4 of those losses coming consecutively leading up to their meeting with Boise State.

A good rushing attack that averaged 5.3 yards per carry (10th in nation), helped the Cougars control games late in the season. Christopher Brooks was the main bell cow as he took his 130 carries for just over 800 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season.

The Cougars will be led by Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis, who will have to be sharp as ever and light up the scoreboard due to their struggles on defense. They return most starters but have a new coordinator in Jay Hill who will be flipping their scheme and dealing with much more explosive offenses in their new conference.

Cincinnati Bearcats UNDER 5.5 Wins

A loss in their season opener to Arkansas dashed any hopes the Bearcats had at running the table and getting back to the CFB Playoff. They did have a strong 9-4 season but compared to recent years, this could be viewed as a bit of a down year.

As if that was not rough enough for Bearcat fans, Luke Fickell was persuaded to leave and take the job at Wisconsin. Now, not only are they without one of the top coaches in the country, but they are also replacing him in their 1st season in the Big 12.

This will not be the Bearcats team that we had become accustomed to over recent years. Scott Satterfield will have only 7 returning starters with majority being on a defense that held opponents to right around 20ppg last season.

However, the Big 12 will provide much tougher offenses for this defense to face in year one in the conference. The under seems likely for yet another new member of the league.

West Virginia Mountaineers UNDER 4.5 Wins

Despite finishing just 5-7 on the season, wins over Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State proved that the Mountaineers may not be that far away from a winning season in 2023. The defense will need to be addressed as they allowed over 35ppg last year and seemingly could stop no one on 3rd down.

The pressure for head coach Neal Brown will be immense as he is firmly on the hot seat this season. There has not been much change in the offseason apart from the QB battle that is likely to be ongoing.

The defense allowed 33ppg last season and without any significant changes, we can only assume more of the same in 2023.

Houston Cougars UNDER 4.5 Wins

Houston comes to the Big 12 after a season in which they averaged 36.1ppg which ranked 13th in the country. While that could be something to build upon in the coming year, the defense is likely to still be an issue as they allowed 32.3ppg to opponents. Kansas gave them an early taste of the Big 12 last year and defeated them 48-30. It could be a long 1st year in the conference for Houston.

As has always been the case for Houston. The offense will likely be the strong point. Donovan Smith has transferred in to take over the reigns at QB. Tony Mathis came in from West Virginia to tout the rock but the defense is the issue.

The Cougars have notoriously won most of their games in high scoring affairs. It is likely not going to be a warm welcome to the Big 12 for the Cougars who could end up near the bottom of the country in points allowed.