We are creeping ever closer to the start of the 2023 NFL Season and as we do, we will be previewing each division and giving out our best bets for each divisional winner and over/under for each team’s win totals.
We strongly encourage our readers to not follow these futures blindly, nor follow each one of them. So many things happen during just the preseason, let alone the entire season that would totally change the direction of a team and derail a future ticket.
The Jags found their way to the top of the division last season while the Colts completely underperformed. The Texans were the bottom of the barrel and made a coaching change in the offseason that many believe will have an immediate impact. They brought in former player DeMeco Ryans, who has a track record of elevating defenses during his short coaching career.
Current Odds to Win 2023 AFC South
Latest Odds from FanDuel SportsBook
| Team |
Odds |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
-155 |
| Tennessee Titans |
+310 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
+550 |
| Houston Texans |
+1000 |
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 9.5 Wins
The Jags pulled a complete 180 during the 2022-2023 season. After getting off to a 4-8 start, they then went on a 6-game winning streak. The last of which was a squeaker in the divisional round of the playoffs over the Chargers.
The offense finished as a top 10 offense in the league while the defense was able to stay inside the top 15. They ranked 10th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage which led them to extended drives game in and game out.
The offensive line held up extremely well and finished 5th in the league in QB sack percentage. Lawrence was able to take advantage of the time given by the O-Line and led the offense to over 233 passing yards per game.
The coaching change of Urban Meyer’s firing and then the hiring of Doug Pederson proved to be invaluable. This season, Lawrence has an opportunity to be even better than he was last season.
Christian Kirk is still one of the biggest targets on the outside and now he will have Calvin Ridley, who they added last season. Between those two and a re-emerging Evan Engram, Lawrence has a chance to be one of the top passers in the league.
Houston Texans Over 6.5 Wins
Things went from bad to worse for the Texans in 2022-2023. The offense was one of the worst in the league and finished 30th in points per game. The defense wasn’t much better as the differential was -7.7ppg between them and the opposition.
They averaged under 90 rushing yards per game which was almost the worst in the league. Dameon Pierce’s health play a part in that but will be healthy this season. They hired DeMeco Ryans to take over the head coaching role and should bring a different culture to the Texans.
They also drafted CJ Stroud, who will start from the jump and be tasked with figuring out NFL defenses immediately. Will Anderson was the next pick for Ryan who he believes will be the start of turning things around for his defense.
We don’t believe the Texans will contend for the division as the Jags should skate to that honor, but we believe the Texans will be stronger than most experts believe in Ryans’ 1st season at the helm.
Tennessee Titans Under 7.5 Wins
Defensively, the Titans had a decent season. They finished 12th in the league, allowing just over 21 points per game. Offensively, they averaged less than 300 yards per game which was one of the worst offenses in the league.
Ryan Tannehill seemed to hit a wall and have not been able to progress anymore under center, and if anything, he’s regressed. They drafted Will Levis, who could eventually take over depending on how the beginning of the season goes.
The QB position is up in the air and Vrabel will need to make a decision that could save or lose his job. Derrick Henry will likely carry the bulk of the offense but will see more and more stacked boxes until a Titans’ QB proves he is worthy of respect. The defense should be respectable once again, but we don’t see the offense moving forward at all.
Indianapolis Colts Under 6.5 Wins
The Colts were a total let down last season. Matt Ryan was never going to be Peyton Manning, but we believed he would be enough to get the Colts a division title. However, that was not to be the case. A 1-4-1 divisional record proved they should not have even been in those discussions.
A 7-game losing streak cemented their abysmal season. Both the offense and defense were saddled at the bottom of the league. They did draft Anthony Richardson, who they hope to bring a new elusive style for the offense that will pay dividends early in his rookie.
Things will hang on the ability for the offensive line and running back Jonathon Taylor. Both of those entities will either help or hinder the play at QB, whoever is behind center.
However, with the way the defense fell apart last season and the coaching changes mid-season, we are led to believe this will be yet another down year for the Colts.
