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2 College Basketball Best Bets for Monday, March 4: Will Baylor Take Down Texas?

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
March 4, 2024
2 College Basketball Best Bets for Monday, March 4

Ready to kick off Big Monday in style? We've got college basketball best bets for both Duke at NC State and Texas at Baylor. Check them out and best of luck!

Texas Longhorns @ Baylor Bears

The Longhorns currently find themselves in the 8 seed line according to the latest brackets from Joe Lunardi. Conference play has not been easy, granted they are in arguably the best conference in the country, they are just 8-8 in league play and in the middle of the Big 12 pack.

They are coming off a nice road win over Oklahoma State where Dylan Disu and Max Abmas combined for 32 points and 9 assists. One of their 8 wins includes a W over this very Baylor team they are facing.

It was an epic battle back in late January where the Bears looked to be in control late before Texas made a big run and took over late. Tyrese Hunter went off for 21 points in the win. Overall, these Longhorns are a balanced team and rank in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies.

Baylor, 21-8 on the season, have won 7 of their last 10 games and are only behind Iowa State and Houston in the Big 12 standings. After back-to-back losses to BYU and Houston, the Bears rebounded well and picked up wins over TCU and then Kansas.

In the win over Kansas, the Bears had 4 players finish in double-figures with RayJ Dennis leading the way with 19 points and 10 assists. Overall, this Baylor team is led by its offense which ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency.

The defense is not terrible, as it ranks just inside the Top 70. However, it is the offense that is responsible for getting these Bears into the proper game tempo night in and night out.

Best Bet: Baylor -7.5

We are backing the Bears here as they are going to be motivated by the revenge factor and with it being Senior night. The Foster Pavilion will be backed and rocking like no other home game this season.

Baylor has also been dominant against the spread at home this season and recent history has not been kind to the Longhorns in this matchup. Let's lay the points with the Bears!

Key Betting Trends for Texas at Baylor

  • Texas is 4-14 ATS after a win.
  • Texas is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Baylor.
  • Baylor is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
  • Baylor is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.

Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

The #10 Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back wins over Louisville and Virginia after suffering a tough loss on the road to Wake Forest the game prior. The win over Virginia was impressive since they shot nearly 50% as a team against a Virginia team that is one of the toughest defensive teams in the country.

Kyle Filipowski finished with 21 points on 9-14 shooting, 7 boards, and 3 steals. Duke continues to improve as the season goes on and currently finds themselves in the upper echelon of title contenders. They have an offense that ranks 8th and a defense that ranks 20th in efficiency. Those numbers are synonymous with most previous national championship teams.

NCST is on the outside looking in an would need to not only pull off this upset, but also make a serious run in the ACC tournament to make the big dance. They had a chance to help their odds over the weekend and failed against UNC where they lost 79-70.

Despite Jayden Taylor and DJ Horne combining for 43pts, the Wolfpack could not hold the Tarheels down on the other end of the floor. With a defense that is outside the Top 75 in adjusted efficiency, it has been difficult for the Wolfpack to put together decent win streaks this season.

Best Bet: Duke -6.5

After the loss to rival UNC, it is going to be tough for the Wolfpack to get up for this game against Duke, who seems to be hitting their stride at the right time of the season. The big issue NCST is likely to have in this contest is going to be defending the perimeter.

Duke is 11th in the country in 3pt percentage while NCST is 274th in defending the deep ball. Duke should be able to open things up with the long ball and allow the paint to clear for Filipowski later in the game.

Key Betting Trends for Duke at NC State

  • Duke is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games as road favorites.
  • Duke is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • NCST is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday when playing at home.
  • NCST is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 home games.
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