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Underdog NFL Week 5 Pick'em Strategy

Aaron White
Written by Aaron White
October 5, 2023
Underdog NFL Week 5 Pick'em Strategy

A few WR1s catch our eye this week as Christian Kirk, Adam Thielen, and Brandon Aiyuk should continue to produce for fantasy managers and prop bettors.

On the ground, ride the hot hands with Lamar Jackson’s boosted rushing TD prop and De’Von Achane’s yardage total in a plus matchup.

Check out our Underdog Pick'em strategy for NFL Week 5. Good luck and let's win some cash!

WR Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 5.0 REC

After his worst performance in a Jags uniform in Week 1, Kirk has bounced back with 23 catches and a touchdown in his last three games while re-asserting himself as the WR1 for Trevor Lawrence.

While Calvin Ridley remains somewhat touchdown dependent, Kirk is a PPR machine and has hit this 5-reception mark more often than not since coming over from Arizona.

While the Bills have a top tier defensive unit, Jacksonville should be playing from behind at times, which gives Kirk a boosted value as a short yardage reciever.

QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) OVER 0.5 RUSH+REC TD (1.25x)

Jackson has scored twice on the ground in his previous two affairs against tough defenses in Indianapolis and Cleveland. Heading into Pittsburgh with the offense rolling and Dobbins out for the season, expect Lamar’s rushing arsenal to be on full display.

The former MVP has only played against the Steelers once in the last two seasons which could play in his favor as one of the best red zone rushing QBs we have seen. With a boosted bet via Underdog, we love Jackson to find the endzone using his legs for the third straight week.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) UNDER 29.5 REC YDS

We hit this bet last week, so why change it up? This New England offense is simply horrendous. As many Patriots fans have stated, this has been the worst spot the team has been in since pre-Brady.

As for JuJu, the now veteran wideout is virtually outside the playbook looking in. Playing a season-low 47% of snaps last week, he’s also averaging under 4 YPT on the year.

Continue to bet against one of the worst offenses in the NFL as they host one of the better defensive units in New Orleans.

RB De’Von Achane (MIA) OVER 50.5 RUSH YDS

Achane is yet another playmaker that has emerged in this Mike McDaniel offense. The Texas A&M product has looked like prime Barry Sanders the past two weeks, scoring six total touchdowns while rushing for 300+ yards.

With the New York Giants allowing nearly 30 rushing attempts per game and over 117 yards to the running back position, Mostert and Achane should have a field day in a bounce back game for the ‘Fins.

WR Adam Thielen (CAR) OVER 49.5 REC YDS

While the rookies have been getting love from us in DFS lineups and prop bets this season, a veteran receiver in Carolina is going overlooked in fantasy. Adam Thielen is sitting as the WR10 in PPR formats and has a plus matchup against Detroit this week.

With Bryce Young slowly becoming more serviceable for Carolina, this could be a “boom” week for some of the Panthers playmakers in a game that has shootout written all over it if the Panthers offensive line can hold up.

With the Lions allowing just over 37 FPPG to wideouts in Half-PPR formats, Thielen to eclipse the 50 yard mark is a bet we love given that he’s hit it in three straight weeks.

WR Brandon Aiyuk (SF) OVER 55.5 REC YDS

This Aiyuk number looked like a typo at first. With Trevon Diggs out and this game due to become a duel between playmakers on each side, this should be a statement game for the new 49ers WR1, Brandon Aiyuk.

The 4th year wideout ranks 4th out of WRs in YPC, 7th in target premium, and 2nd in QBR per target. Ultimately, this is Purdy’s “guy” and in Shanahan’s offense, Purdy’s “guy” is exactly who you want to put your money on. We love Aiyuk to dominate the Cowboys at home this week.

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