ONE more stop until UFC 300 next weekend! Although the excitement for the card of the century is on the rise, don't overlook this week's Apex event.
There are some great matchups on Saturday, so let's take a look at a couple of best bets to place before the card kicks off at 3 PM EST. Best of luck with all of your wagers this weekend!
Jean Matsumoto By Dec +130 (Bet365)
Matsumoto is making his UFC debut after his decision win on the Dana White Contender Series last year. The undefeated prospect will take on Dan Argueta, a wrestler who looks to push the pace and use his great cardio to win rounds while he looks for submissions.
I can see why some will fade a DWCS alumn making their debut against an experienced fighter like Argueta, but Matsumoto has shown that he's skilled everywhere and even has a couple of five-round fights under his belt to prove his cardio.
As his fights have gone longer, Argueta tends to drop his hands in exchanges. This will get him in trouble with the striking Matsumoto has displayed. I like the undefeated prospect to sprawl and brawl on his way to a decision win.
Victor Hugo ML -130 (DraftKings)
Hugo was originally set to take on Alatengheili on Saturday until Alatengheili pulled out earlier this week. Now Pedro Falcao steps in on days' notice.
Falcao presents a grappling threat that Alatengheili didn't have, but Hugo's preference seems to be on the mat as well, with 10 of his 24 wins coming from sub.
This very well could be a high-level grappling match, but usually, when two grapplers meet, we see extended time on the feet as a result. That's where I'll be most comfortable with Hugo in this one. He'll have a five-inch reach advantage on his opponent plus the expected cardio edge with Falcao stepping in without a full camp to prepare.
At these same odds, I had Hugo as a slight favorite over Alatengheili, so I'm more than happy to take him here against an inferior opponent on short notice.
Parlay: Charlie Campbell ML AND Alex Morono ML +110 (Caesars)
I've been very impressed with Charlie Campbell's performances in his young MMA career. He's a long, technical striker who delivers sniper-like shots to his opponents. Six of his eight wins have come from TKOs, and he'll have an opponent that’s more than willing to throw with him.
I admit that Trevor Peek will be a tough out, but his brawler style has already put his chin through a lot of damage in his young career. As long as Campbell is able to stay on the outside, he will be able to take advantage of Peek's recklessness and walk away with another finish.
The other half of our parlay will be picking on the 39-year-old Court McGee. McGee has lost two in a row by TKO and was in trouble of being stopped in the three before that. His game plan is to hang on to his opponents and rack up control time with his grappling. Something that isn't in favor of the scoring criteria if this goes to a decision.
Across from him will be Alex Morono. Morono has both the Ju-Jitsu and wrestling skills to keep McGee off him. From there, it's only a matter of time before he uses his boxing to find McGee's broken-down chin.
Morgan Charriere ML -115 (BetMGM)
Last week, you had to put some juice on Charriere with his line floating in the -160 range for his matchup against Chepe Mariscal. Since then, it has moved closer to pick 'em odds, so I'm more than willing to take the Frenchman here.
I can see why money has come on Mariscal since he's extremely tough and has great cardio. However, I believe Charriere is the better fighter wherever this fight goes. Mariscal is more of a brawler who throws in bunches, while Charriere is a kickboxer who picks and chooses his strikes wisely. Charriere can also level change when needed, which may be necessary with Mariscal's wild style.
It's worth noting that Mariscal seemed to be moving away from his brawling style in his last fight against Jack Jenkins. Before Jenkins broke his arm in the second round on a Mariscal takedown attempt, Mariscal was struggling with Jenkins' striking for most of the first.
I think this one plays out similarly to that first round, with Charriere picking Mariscal apart on the feet until a takedown attempt presents itself. I like Charriere by decision in this one.
