Admittedly, our 3-7 start to the 2024 MLB season was not the plan. That said, we are in good company with the number of players in the big leagues who are struggling to get out of the gates this season.
Even the great Ronald Acuña Jr. has an OPS hovering just above .750 through 70 plate appearances to begin the campaign, and we hope to continue putting together winning days over the season.
Tuesday's schedule is packed, including a standalone afternoon matchup at 1:10 pm ET between the Rangers and Tigers from Detroit. We've picked our spots among the 15 games on the slate and have three best bets today.
Evan Carter OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+145 @ DraftKings)
Carter is our pick for the early game. While the start to his first full season in the big leagues has been less impressive than his late-season heroics in 2023, he's been a stable presence in the Rangers lineup through 15 games.
His slash line was likely going to drop from the .306/.413/.645 that he blazed in 75 plate appearances after his debut, and those numbers are .226/.359/.434 in 2024 so far. He's seen a drop in home run rate from 6.7% to 3.1% and is not hitting the ball as hard this season, but he's roped five doubles in 64 plate appearances and is on pace for around 50 this season.
Carter has experienced most of his success at the plate against righties, and Detroit's Casey Mize fits that description. Mize has a 1.39 WHIP and 4.82 ERA through 9.1 innings of work this season.
Dylan Cease UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-111 @ FanDuel)
Cease has been a stabilizing force within the Padres rotation, leading the bunch in ERA, WHIP, FIP, and K/9 since being traded to San Diego just before the season. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up has struck out at least six batters in all three starts, peaking at seven punchouts in his last two outings, where he went six innings each time.
He is still great at hitting his spots and missing bats, with 28% of his pitches going for called or swinging strikes. His Tuesday matchup is against an impressive unit, though. Milwaukee is second in the MLB in OPS and runs per game and third in steals, pushing an average of more than six runners across the plate in their 15 contests.
Only ten teams strike out at a lower rate than the Brewers in 2024, and we expect their combination of power, speed, and plate discipline will result in Cease remaining under eight strikeouts.
Jared Jones OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122 @ FanDuel)
The Pirates' latest pitching phenom has arrived. The 22-year-old righty is second in the National League in K/9, leads the league in BB/9, and ranks sixth in WHIP.
During his debut, the only start where Jones saw more than two runs of support from the Pittsburgh bats, he earned his first win and struck out ten while issuing his only two walks of the season against Miami. Since then, Jones has had 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings of work, which shows he may be here to stay.
The Mets, Jones' Tuesday opponent, have avoided strikeouts better than 27 other teams this season. We'll pay to see if that holds up against one of the game's better young arms.
