The backdoor was wide open last week for the Buccaneers to storm through and cover the number against the Bills, and Baker Mayfield took advantage. The veteran racked up 93 passing yards amid a penalty-heavy drive and stamped an exclamation point on his team’s covering effort with a 24-yard touchdown to Mike Evans on fourth down with under three minutes to go. Tampa Bay had not been within the 10-point spread for most of the second half until that moment but delivered when it counted for those tailing the Bucs on Thursday night.
This week’s TNF matchup is as gritty as they come: Steelers hosting the Titans. Pittsburgh will either start a banged-up Kenny Pickett or backup Mitchell Trubisky and miss All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who pulled a hamstring against Jacksonville.
The Titans are riding high on the back of Will Levis’ first career start, a 28-23 victory over Atlanta where the rookie threw four touchdown passes. Three of those went for 30+ yards, and Tennessee fans must have welcomed the change from Ryan Tannehill’s 188 yards per game and two touchdowns in 158 attempts.
Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 with a low point total of 36.5. The Steelers rank 18th in scoring defense but have held four of seven opponents under 21 points. Tennessee is 13th in scoring D themselves, and both are 23rd or worse in point production on offense.
We’ve scanned the board for props and present our best bets for TNF, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy.
Will Levis OVER 202.5 Yards Passing
The Steelers' defense has had trouble stopping teams from moving the ball through the air this season, ranking in the bottom ten in the NFL in passing yards per game defensively. The absence of Fitzpatrick, the team’s leading tackler, is a significant blow to Pittsburgh’s ability to stop the run and cover in the secondary.
Levis was efficient and posed a constant threat in his debut against the Falcons' defense, a top-ten passing unit, and will make his first road start at Acrisure Stadium this week.
We expect the team to lean into the running game, but Levis will connect on a deep shot or two that propels him over this number.
Diontae Johnson OVER 5.0 Receptions
Johnson racked up 14 targets across 43 throws from Trubisky and Pickett in Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars, a strong indication of his role on this team that averages 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 192 yards per game.
That's a target rate of 32.5%, more than doubling any other player on the team. While he may have trouble reaching yardage totals, we don’t see either Steeler quarterback shying away from targeting their reliable underneath threat.
Johnson is 12 catches off the team lead despite only playing three of seven games this season. He should continue to close that gap this week.
Derrick Henry OVER 0.5 Total Yards (Featured on Underdog)
Who doesn’t love a good promo play when they're offered? Henry was listed as a limited participant in practice both Monday and Tuesday due to an ankle injury, which leads us to think he’s trending toward playing Thursday night.
He will still be in a Titans uniform for Week 9 despite some belief he'd be moved at the trade deadline, and we expect 15-20 carries for Henry if he plays against the Steelers.
For what it’s worth, his Rush + Rec yards total on the site is 89.5.
