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3 MLB Player Props for Wednesday, May 15: How Will Freeman Fare?

Nicholas Berault
Written by Nicholas Berault
May 15, 2024
3 MLB Player Props for Wednesday, May 15

Like a slumping hitter having a much-needed 3-for-4 game with a few extra-base hits, we have started to find our form. On the heels of a 3-7 start to the MLB season betting player props, we’re on a 6-2 run and have leveled our record at 9-9 through 40 games.

In our last edition, released on April 26, three best bets swept the board as Jazz Chisholm, Jeimer Candelario, and Taylor Ward went hitless to cash each of their unders for combined hits, runs, and RBI. We’ll look to mirror that performance during Wednesday’s full schedule.

Storylines heading into today’s games include the Cubs searching for their first run in a series with the Braves after being shut out twice in a row, Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez putting a 7-0 record on the line against the Mets, and solid pitching matchups in Minnesota, Boston, and Atlanta.

There would have also been a marquee pitching duel in San Francisco before Tyler Glasnow was scratched from a potential clash with Logan Webb in favor of more rest. Today’s best bets are handicapped below. Let’s stay hot.

Pete Alonso UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+130 @ DraftKings)

Two trends are going against the Mets slugger in this matchup with Philadelphia. First, the current series that began at Citi Field for two games will transition to Philly for the final two meetings.

Alonso owns a .639 OPS in 75 plate appearances away from home in 2024. Second, the Mets face Ranger Suarez on Wednesday. Suarez is among the early frontrunners for the NL Cy Young award, having won seven straight starts during which he’s allowed 28 hits, walked seven batters, and given up just six runs while striking out 48 in 49 innings.

The Polar Bear is 0-for-12 lifetime against Suarez in 16 plate appearances. Despite him recently breaking out of a 2-for-37 slump, we don’t expect Alonso to see success against Suarez.

Carlos Santana UNDER 0.5 Total Bases (+130 @ DraftKings)

Similar to Alonso, Santana has struggled against the starter he and his teammates will face on Wednesday. Santana has a .599 OPS in 29 plate appearances against New York’s Marcus Stroman, including going 0-for-6 last season as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates with five ground balls to the right side of the infield and a strikeout.

The former All-Star has been finding his form lately, hitting safely in five straight contests to raise his OPS by nearly 100 points. Given his past struggles, we’re not convinced he’ll sustain that against Stroman.

Freddie Freeman OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100 @ DraftKings)

The perennial All-Star remains a stable presence in the Dodger lineup, although his numbers are less overwhelming than his first two seasons in LA. Freeman has struggled against lefties in 2024 but feasted against right-handers, posting a 1.012 OPS and swatting 14 of his 17 extra-base hits.

These matchups have been more comfortable for him amid a campaign where his home run rate is at a career-low 2.0%, and his average exit velocity (89.0) is below 90 mph for the first time since 2018.

Against Giants’ righty Logan Webb, Freeman is 13-for-29 with a slash line of .448/.467/.655 in 30 career plate appearances. Webb has surrendered 24 hits, 12 runs, and seven walks over his last three starts spanning 14.2 innings, which gives us confidence in taking Freeman to go over his total today.

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