Thursday NFL football returns to the status quo after a non-competitive Thanksgiving schedule where the three winning teams covered the spread by an average of more than 15 points.
Green Bay led off the afternoon with a convincing win on the road in Detroit, gaining 7.0 yards per play and forcing three Lions turnovers. Our prop on David Montgomery’s receiving yards was a loser.
Dallas and San Francisco followed with decisive victories of their own, beating division opponents by more than two scores in front of national audiences. Sam Howell heaved 44 throws to give us a winner on his pass attempt total, and our promo play on Christian McCaffrey came home easily, as expected.
In Week 13, Dallas and Seattle will hit the field for a second straight Thursday, with the Cowboys playing host. These teams represent the current fifth and sixth seeds in the NFC playoff picture.
The Seahawks are nine-point underdogs on the road in the middle of the most daunting part of their schedule. After losing to San Fran last week, Seattle heads to Dallas, then travels to face the 49ers again on December 10, and wraps up this four-game stretch by hosting Philadelphia in Week 15. It could get ugly fast for a team that has already lost three of four entering this matchup.
The Cowboys hope to keep pace in the NFC East race, where they trail the Eagles by two games. Dallas will host Philly next Sunday night following this TNF spotlight against Seattle.
Our best bets for Seahawks-Cowboys are ready for game time and detailed just ahead.
Geno Smith OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-145 @ DraftKings)
Smith has thrown one interception over his last three games and managed to avoid turnovers against the Rams and Commanders in that span.
We expect Smith to get picked off in this game because of his record against similar defenses and the belief that Seattle must continue to run pass plays to keep pace.
In three games against other top-five passing defenses (SF, CLE, and BAL), Smith has a combined stat line of 54-for-92, 591 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 Int. Dallas has generated the third most interceptions in the league this season and we expect them to nab another off Smith on Thursday.
Tony Pollard UNDER 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel)
The Cowboys’ leading rusher is also one reception behind Brandin Cooks for second on the team this season. Pollard’s first campaign as the Cowboys’ undisputed lead back has seen his averages in yards per carry and yards per reception drop significantly year-over-year.
He’s already tied his career-high in receptions but is managing just 6.0 yards per catch. Pollard has 14 grabs in the last five weeks from 17 targets and has only gained 57 yards in those opportunities.
He will be involved in the Cowboys’ passing game but struggle to get 20 yards through the air.
Jason Myers UNDER 1.5 Extra Points Made
Three key factors are top of mind for us in making this play:
- Dallas has allowed just six passing/rushing touchdowns in five home games.
- The Seahawks are expected to be playing from behind, and any later scores could be followed by two-point conversion attempts instead.
- Seattle has attempted four extra points in the last four weeks.
Myers is a perfect 20-for-20 this season when he gets the chance to try an extra point, but we don’t see him getting those opportunities against Dallas.
