We return to the Apex for UFC Vegas 87 this Saturday. The big boys will headline this week when veteran Jairzinho Rozenstruik takes on the newcomer Shamil Gaziev. That should be a highly entertaining matchup.
The fights kick off at a special start time this week—1:30 PM EST—so let's place some best bets before things get underway this weekend. Best of luck with all of your weekend action!
Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO -110 (DraftKings)
What will probably be a popular play on Saturday, Christian Leroy Duncan should be in a good spot to add another knockout victory to his record against the Brazilian Claudio Ribeiro.
Ribeiro has been knocked out in two of his last three. A nasty head-kick knockout from Roman Kopylov shut his lights out at UFC 291, and Abdul Razak Alhassan scored a TKO victory in the same building where Duncan will face him.
I like this one to play out similarly to Ribeiro's matchup with Alhassan. Alhassan used his clinch work to back Ribeiro against the cage for most of the first round before a right hook led to a stoppage in the second.
Ribeiro is an explosive striker, but his best work is in bursts. Duncan should be able to use his movement and clinch game inside the smaller apex cage to counter those bursts. Once Riberio shows signs of letup and has his back against the cage, his lack of movement should put Duncan in a good spot to unload strikes on him for his 8th TKO victory.
Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett o2.5 rounds -125 (Bet365)
This number has to reflect both fighters' urgency to remain with the company because their skill and recent history say this one goes over 2.5 rounds.
Pickett has no wins by stoppage in the UFC, while Anders' only finish win in the last five years was against a fighter who was coming off a nasty knockout and has since been cut from the UFC.
They've both been finished, but most stoppages between them come from Pickett being subbed. With Anders being known for his striking and Pickett most likely opting to use his wrestling, this one should see a third round with a great chance of going the distance. Play the over with confidence.
Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO or Sub -125 (DraftKings)
It's rare to see a -1200 favorite have a playable finish number, so let's take advantage and bet on the future title contender to finish this one inside the distance.
Bekzat Almakhan could be a tough out, but his 17-1 record with 13 finishes suggests he'll be aggressive. Whether the fight stays on the feet or to the mat, that aggressiveness could lead to finish opportunities for the more experienced Nurmagomedov.
Three of four Nurmagomedov's victories have come from stoppage in the UFC, and the books have this one favored to end inside the distance, so playing the heavy favorite to finish Almakhan seems like a no-brainer.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev to Start Round 2 -105 (DraftKings)
These two will swing like they want to knock each other's heads off, but I like the number we're getting for this one to see a second round.
Rozenstruik will likely be the fighter to throw heavy early, but don't expect Gaziev to immediately enter a firefight since this is only his second UFC bout and first five-rounder with the company.
Gaziev could catch him if Rozenstruik is sloppy. He's a precise striker who's live for counter-punch KO. However, the smart game plan is to control the distance with his jab, while the smaller apex cage presents an opportunity for a takedown attempt.
Rozenstruik is no stranger to falling into his opponent's game plan when he's a dog, but we have yet to see enough of Gaziev at this level to be so sure of him finishing this one early. This is his first big test, so expect a buffering period in the first, and let's hope neither big man catches anything heavy for the first five minutes.
