Two teams with opposite momentum meet for Sunday Night Football in Week 12, with the LA Chargers hosting the Baltimore Ravens for the first time in their tenure at SoFi Stadium. The Ravens have won the two previous regular-season meetings during Lamar Jackson’s tenure but lost to the Chargers in the 2019 playoffs at home. Baltimore last defeated LA 34-6 in 2021 during a bruising display of ground superiority, rushing for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries and holding the Chargers to just 208 total yards.
Heading into their 15th meeting overall, LA is a 3.5-point home underdog. Five of their six losses this season have been by three points or fewer, and the Chargers are 0-2 ATS when they’ve been a home dog. Baltimore has been favored away from home three times in 2023, covering just once in a 28-3 win over Cleveland in early October.
Another 1-1 result in the Vikings’ loss to the Broncos last Sunday night lands our recent run over seven weeks at 11-7. Josh Dobbs ran eight times for 21 yards, which wasn’t enough to cash the over, but Javonte Williams finished a half-yard under his total to secure one of two best bets.
We look ahead to Week 12’s SNF matchup with our latest edition of player prop best bets.
The two times Jackson has exceeded this total in 2023 have occurred in the last five weeks. He connected with three different receivers on passes of 30 yards or more a week ago and will need to lean on his speedy receiving corps now that the team has lost Mark Andrews for multiple weeks at minimum.
Andrews suffered a severe ankle injury against Cincinnati in Week 11 that will sideline him indefinitely. The Chargers allow the fourth-most net yards per pass attempt in the NFL and gave up more than 320 yards each to Jordan Love and Jared Goff in the last two weeks.
We anticipate Jackson finding room all over the field against the Chargers secondary and exploiting them for more than 250 yards through the air.
Conversely, Herbert and his teammates face a Ravens’ secondary that allows 4.2 net yards per attempt this season. That is by far the best mark in the league and is the driving force behind their top-rated defense in yards per play. Only Indianapolis can join Baltimore in boasting that they have more interceptions this season than touchdowns allowed through the air.
Herbert has had mixed results against other top passing defenses. He struggled against the Jets (136 yards) and Cowboys (227 yards), completing less than 57% of his throws for 5.4 yards per attempt. He posted a similar completion percentage against Kansas City while throwing two interceptions but did manage 259 yards against the defending champs.
Baltimore expects Marlon Humphrey to return this week, per John Harbaugh’s media availability on Monday. We predict the Ravens will bottle up Herbert in their primetime meeting this Sunday. Jared Goff is the only passer to have surpassed 250 yards against this defense in 2023, and Baltimore has allowed 158.8 yards per game over the last month.
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