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PrizePicks NFL Props Strategy for 2023
Written by Aaron White
August 4, 2023

PrizePicks NFL Props Strategy for 2023

Post Hall of Fame game, the start of the 2023-24 NFL season is on the horizon. Storylines including Aaron Rodgers’ move to a different team in green to the diminishing running back market, to the Bills offseason drama will be put behind us as a new slate of wins, losses, and stats will be the only things that matter from here on out.

Here are a few strategies when selecting your props before the season begins along with a few of the best bets. Let's reel in some winners!

QUARTERBACKS

Place Money on the Surrounding Playmakers

Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Tua Tagovailoa are all top ten QBs, no doubt. However, what makes them perfect players to bet on before and during the season are the playmakers surrounding them.

Herbert has five above average pass catchers. Lawrence has a top five TE and top 15 WR in fantasy terms, with Calvin Ridley joining the squad.

Finally, Tua has two of the top playmaking wideouts in the league. While you still have to dive into the numbers, these three throwers are due to take leaps in their 3rd and 4th seasons in the league.

Stray Away from Sticky Situations & Tough Divisions

Mac Jones and Russell Wilson are the two QBs that come to mind in this grouping. Not only are they in tough divisions, but the trust from their respective franchises are on thin ice if this season starts out on a sour note.

With both Wilson and Jones, it seems as if both franchises are investing in their Head Coach and defense more than the QB, and that’s scary when betting on yardage or TD totals that require both to play at least 15+ games this season.

Best Bets (PrizePicks)

  • Desmond Ridder (over 2,575.5 YDs)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (over 3,850.5 YDs)
  • Justin Herbert (over 29.5 TDs)

RUNNING BACKS

Glance at Each Depth Chart. More Like Stare

Situations and opportunities are key here. James Conner, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders are positive examples here. Out of these “veteran” NFC halfbacks, you might be asking, “Well why would Montgomery be here when Gibbs could turn into the RB1 in Detroit?”

Jamaal Williams’ 17 rushing TDs are up for grabs and the Lions will look to use Gibbs more as a receiver early on, leaving David with most the red zone rushing work.

In Arizona and Carolina, Conner and Sanders should get at least 70% of the carries and catches out of the backfield early on in the season with little receiving help and RB2 or 3 power behind them.

Mobile QB vs Stationary QB

Baltimore, Buffalo, and Philadelphia are the three examples here. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts are three of the most prolific red zone rushers in the NFL.

I’d stray away from selecting these squad’s running backs in TD bets, respecting the scrambling ability of the potential MVP candidates.

Best Bets (PrizePicks)

  • Nick Chubb (over 8.5 RUSH TDs)
  • David Montgomery (over 750.5 RUSH YDs)
  • Miles Sanders (over 0.5 REC TDs)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Trust the QB

At this point, we know which QBs are trustworthy or at least manageable when selecting receivers on sub-par or average offenses. However, be weary when glancing at Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, and D.J. Moore’s TD total and yardage total on PrizePicks.

While these WR’s talent can’t be diminished, their sub-par QB play and solid defensive backs within their respective divisions make it difficult to envision top 15 seasons.

I’d need to see more from Fields and Wilson in their offensive systems to bet on their playmakers. As for Arizona, stray away from anyone not named James Conner.

Head Coaches & OCs Matter

Mike McDaniel, Kyle Shanahan, and Kellen Moore are just a few of the offensive minded coaches you should trust with your prop plays this season.

All three of these coaches have two highlight players to splurge on including Tua & Waddle in Miami, Aiyuk & CMC in San Francisco, and Ekeler & Herbert in Los Angeles. Doubling down on productive offenses is the way to go.

Best Bets (PrizePicks)

  • Adam Thielen (over 4.5 REC TDs)
  • Brandon Aiyuk (over 4.5 REC TDs)
  • Amari Cooper (over 72.5 REC)

TIGHT ENDS

Team is Fully Invested

Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts, and T.J. Hockenson are a few TEs outside the top names that display this label. Long term deals, the 1st or 2nd option in the passing game, and a projected better-than-average offense should allow you to bank on Engram and Hockenson surpassing their reception total and Pitts breaking out in the red zone for Atlanta this season.

Year Two Spike

Isaiah Likely and Chigozeim Okonkwo should enjoy a year two spike. Chigoziem, my favorite TE in dynasty, redraft, prop, and Best Ball formats will dominate as the Titans secondary pass catcher as he looks to partake in about 80% of the snaps alongside Hopkins as they dominate the red zone target share.

Likely has flown under the radar this off-season but should look to build on a solid rookie campaign. If one of the Ravens playmakers goes down with an injury, look for Likely to step in as a huge target for Lamar on 3rd downs and in the red zone.

Best Bets (PrizePicks)

  • Evan Engram (over 3.5 REC TDs)
  • Kyle Pitts (over 4.5 REC TDs)
  • Sam LaPorta (over 3.5 REC TDs)
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